The four-panel graphs above illustrate the seasonal cycle and trend decomposition of my painting production measured back to 1996. What? Who tracks such mundane statistics? Well, I do. Having maintained a Painting Log since 1996, I amassed quite a large database and houseful of painted figures over the last 25 years. The counts keep climbing with no end in sight.
When I last examined my painting seasonality in 2014, I was curious to see if there was a relationship between time of year and painting output. There was a relationship. Looking at the seasonality graph from 2014 (see below), fourth quarter seems to be my most productive period. August shows a resurgence of activity too. Rather than actual figure count, Adjusted Painting Points are summarized. Adjusted Painting Points are based on the Analog Hobbies Points Scoring System.
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| Monthly seasonal tendencies 1996-2014 |
Notice that the seasonality exhibits a sawtooth pattern. That is, every up month is followed by a down month. Does a good month at the painting desk tend to lead to backing off of production in the next month? The data suggest that but it could also be due to timing. Sometimes, I just don't quite finish off a unit before month end. That unit then is finished off early in the following month, perhaps, inflating the next month's painting tally.
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| Monthly seasonal tendencies 1996-2019 |
What about changes to Total Painting Points over the last 25 years? The data suggests my output made a leap in about 2006. Since then, production has remained relatively stable averaging between 300-400 painting points per month.
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| Total Painting Points and Trend, 1996-2020 YTD |
Next off the painting desk will see a return to Feudal Japan and some WWII vehicles in 15mm. Also, expect to see a WWII 15mm German infantry gun for a planned scenario.
You have an extraordinary amount of data Jonathan!
ReplyDeleteOur lockdown status is changing so that we can venture out to a max of 5km (3 miles) from home, up from 2km. Time to put air in the tyres and take the bike out on some circuits!!
Get on your bike and ride! Yes, I do have a lot of data and a lot of painted figures.
DeleteInteresting, and I'd like to record the same. I have a feeling that my most productive months are in spring and early autumn as they are the most pleasant times to paint with regard to light and temperature, especially as the airconditioning in my painting room during the height of summer is not always the most pleasant to paint in.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback on your own tendencies, Lawrence. Since my painting area is in a cool basement, my summer painting doldrums are not due to heat at the painting desk.
DeleteWoW. I used to keep records of all my medieval battles and which units routed and which units won melees. No idea where it is now but I found it interesting.The Comte de Alencon was the top man, opponents actually began to look for and avoid him on the battlefield.
ReplyDeleteGood stuff, George! The only gaming personalities I maintained a record of were gladiators and chariot racers during some campaign games long ago. I like your idea of maintaining battle honors among your units.
DeleteI adopted a more simplistic approach Johnathan. I identified years ago that the painting season reflected the actual seasons and of course the campaigning seasons. So the Winter tends to be most productive painting season even though the light is poor. The Spring and summer slow down production normally, well unless one is in lock-down that is. Your approach whilst impressive is a tad worrying. Have you thought about a hobby?
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your personal observations, Robbie. Hobby? This is my hobby. Besides, having collected the data, it would be a shame not to pull some insights from them.
DeleteYour organisation and attention to detail is second to none Jonathan. My organisational abilities are pathetic -no, inexistent - next to yours!
ReplyDeleteMike, if only I had your talent with a brush...
DeletePersonally, it seems I've started on new projects immediately after attending our big annual convention, Enfilade, at the end of May. Maybe a cathartic thing after hosting a game I had prepared for the previous year. It'll be interesting this year with the convention canceled.
ReplyDeleteDean, I have at least two projects inspired by games presented at Enfilade. One was a SYW game in 25mm and the second a 25mm French Intervention in Mexico game. Both of these projects were spawned in the late 90s.
DeleteI'm a seasonal painter in the sense that from early Autumn, with little to do on the garden and the show season kicking off with Colours, I'm inspired to pick up the brushes etc. This carries on until early Spring, when the garden and longer days lead me outside. Despite this my painting is still painfully little in terms of volume, but I don't force myself to paint and wait until the muse is upon me.
ReplyDeleteThanks for contributing your own painting tendencies, Steve. Much appreciated! I bet if many tracked their painting output, seasonal tendencies might surface for most. Spring and summer seem to be my low painting seasons too.
DeleteMy painting output relies on much more mundane criteria ie available financial resources. So on the odd occasions when there has been a domestic surplus, I am able to slip in a decent sized purchase...several hundred dollars in one go...and when the figures arrive, I generally sit down most evenings and work my what through them. In leaner times, I can go six months or longer without any figure purchases at all, and hence no painting production...seasonality has very little to do with it.
ReplyDeleteKeith, I am surprised given the size and variety of your collections that you are not painting in regular sessions. Thanks for including your painting tendencies. Always interesting to see how others tackle the job.
DeleteThat's data dedication.
ReplyDeleteInteresting, for me it often comes down to game(s) coming up or planned that drives my painting output.
Do you often have a show or convention in March, April or May? I ask as your drop off in production in those months might match up with either games played or shows ongoing.
I would certainly see a peak in production in December from 2004-2013, followed by drop off in Feb, March and April as those months were filled with conventions and family trips (over Easter) and therefore far less time at the painting desk.
Well, wrangling data has consumed much of my career.
DeleteI have not attended a convention in many years so that is no source for production drop off. Early spring decline could, in part, be due to recovery from the late fall/winter painting blitz. Perhaps after the holidays, I am exhausted?
Also a contributing factor is weather. When the weather begins to open up in spring, activities shift more to outdoor pursuits. Yardwork and cycling consume spare time. May is often a month of travel for us. In most years, May sees travel to Europe for two or three weeks. September sees a similar pattern due to travel.
I would enjoy seeing your painting patterns if you have been tracking output since 2004.
I usually get most of my yearly painting done from December to May. thanks to the Analogue Hobbies Painting Challenge. When it starts getting warmer my brush size goes up to 4 inches and I'm painting walls instead!
ReplyDeleteYes, you AHPCers can really crank out the figures during the challenge. Many are probably exhausted after that three month exercise.
DeleteIf you run out of full-scale wall painting ops, let me know, I could use a hand!
Are you counting completed figures without regard to size? That may skew your results, though only, I guess, if you also have a seasonal shift in figure scale.
ReplyDeleteHi Scott. The numbers are all based upon adjusted painting paints in which figure size is taken into account and adjusted. Analog Hobbies Painting Point method is used to adjust raw painting figure counts to painting points.
DeleteThe seasonal tendencies may have some inherent skewing based on figure size since my experience has been that painting one 25mm figure offers more "bang for the buck" than other figure sizes. If I paint more 25mm figures, total points accrue more quickly than if I focus on painting 15mm figures.
Do you find that too?
Interesting post, my productivity is pretty constant, I have in the past had a little dip after taking part in the Analogue Hobbies challenge but I think that is pushing out a little more at the end of the challenge and then readjusting immediately after. I tend to paint for an hour, maybe two if I'm lucky ,every weekday evening ,usually not on Saturday,sometimes Sunday evening. I would guess hobby time ( painting, prepping and building) is around 8 hours a week. I always try and grab even a little, even if it's only 15 to 20 minutes so I can keep the ball running. Previously I would try and wait until there was a decent amount of time available and paint a lot in one go but I find little and often is much more productive and in many ways it is the hobby to me as I find it a therapeutic wind down after a stressful day,any games are really just a bonus!
ReplyDeleteBest Iain
Iain, I notice many AHPC participants taking a well-deserved break after the Challenge ends. In fact, I see some who paint no more the remainder of the year!
DeleteI am firmly in the camp of "paint a little, often." During the week, I cannot seem to consistently get in quality painting sessions. A weeknight session of 30-45 minutes may be it. Many weeknights, I am too tired to manage any session at all.
Winding down from a busy workday with an enjoyable painting session is my preferred way to unwind. An evening painting session is a perfect way to recharge the batteries enough to face another stressful day at the office.
Does that mean painting is mainly a weekend activity? Too many family things happening for me, sometimes I'm too tired of an evening but I try to do something even if its undemanding!
DeleteBest Iain
Iain, I am in the same situation. My goal is to paint every weekday evening but that goal does not always come to pass. Weekends are when I can usually get in a solid two-three hours uninterrupted.
DeleteInteresting. I follow some similar trends. I have not been logging my progress as long, but I did start looking for trends a few years back. Have you found any correlation between period/scale and time of year?
ReplyDeleteInteresting question. With so many periods, figure sizes, and the variety I push onto the painting desk, I would be surprised if there was a correlation. To me, it looks more like a random walk in action with a few runs.
DeleteVery interesting. And as you are an extremely prolific painter you have lots of data points to provide a bigger picture. If you are a creature of habit, then at least your habit is good and has provided years of enjoyment. 😀
ReplyDeleteAs a hobby should.
For myself, I feel I don’t paint enough to warrant tracking by season. Well, maybe seasons of life. There was the pre-marriage season, and the newly married season, and now I feel I’m in the lowest production season yet, the little children season. It seems to go on forever. I’m hoping the next season of life will give a big uptick in production of miniatures painted and games played. 😀
Hi Stew! Yes, I have many data points from which to draw a conclusion. My conclusion? I may have too much lead left to paint.
DeleteI like and understand your “seasons of life” analogy. One day, when the kids no longer want to be around mom and dad, may you find some solace in picking up the brush on a more regular basis.
My painting certainly has seasonality to it! I usually paint the most March - June and September to December. July and August are spent much more outdoors, plus after Historicon each year I often do little with regard to wargaming for a couple of months. Planned games is definitely a big driver. With Historicon seeming a distant possibility this year, there is no dominant painting driver. Production is up the past 2 months, though, due to less demanding work schedule for the short haul.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy seeing your personal experience on the painting seasonality discussion, Peter. Seeing how your painting productivity continues this tendency without a convention driver will be interesting to follow. We will need to look back in Q2 and Q3 to see if your painting output drops in Q2 with no convention and increases in Q3 for the same reason.
DeleteWhat a typical posting by our leading academic in the wargaming blog hobby! I think that I can understand this high numbers of figures painted during the winter. Maybe you don't like winter activities or don't have to pull kids on a sledge through the snow. ;-)
ReplyDeleteHowever it should be the same in my life, except under the current cercumstances, when nothing is normal. In summer I enjoy hiking in the mountains and visiting exciting places such as castles, palaces and more. I'm not painting during travels and I certainly don't plan wargaming during reenactment events.
I'm looking forward to your comments on my next posting full of reflecting about my blog, as I don't much care about my painting output. Everybody has his reason to paint up armies. I really much do it just because nobody else would do it exactly as I would want to have it (although even I myself make some mistakes using wrong sources sometimes).
Andre', your reply is most appreciated!
DeleteIn winter, I am indoors most of the time and daylight hours are short. I go to work in the dark and return after the sun has set. With work, few daylight hours to be outdoors. I wish I lived in a place having castles and palaces to visit. That would consume considerable time.
I await your post on hobby reflections. As you say, everyone has their own reasons for being in the hobby. Painting is only one facet. I enjoy it and find the activity relaxing.
Relaxing. That's the word. I'm maybe too impatient. However I admire your endurance to paint the same figures again and again (although I noticed that you can paint very different for the ancients). The results are great in their own right. Most of us have a very special focus, which is easy to notice looking on the appearance of the game (terrain, gaming mat, buildings etc.).
DeletePainting is a relaxing way to wind down after a busy day. Everyone seems to hold their own style in applying paint to the figure. When I see blog posts, I know almost immediately who painted the figures. Some are not to my tastes, some unique, but all are perfectly situated for the painter.
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