Thoughts On Input/Output Uncertainty

With two games of Flower of Chivalry (FoC) under my belt and the sounds of battle still ringing in my ears after Richard’s latest practice game (see Flower of Chivalry Practice Game), I have been pondering the turn sequence.  Am I overthinking the rules’ design? Perhaps.  To the relief of some, there will be no machine learning techniques explained, probability distributions scrutinized, or simulation studies explored. Not this time, anyway.

Instead, I want to consider a simpler question.  Does the order in which we discover what our troops can do make a difference to the decisions we make?  More specifically, would a small change to the turn sequence give players a little more scope for planning without removing the uncertainty of command?

The turn sequence, as written, is:

1. Check command.
2. Resolve personal challenges.
3. Choose Aggression Levels.
4. Roll to determine accepted orders.
5. Draw one Action Card to determine the number of actions available.
6. Execute orders.

The player chooses an Aggression Level in step (3), but the results in steps (4) and (5) determine what that commitment actually allows.  First, will the desired order be accepted?  Second, will there be enough actions to carry it out?  That second question gave Ray and me something to consider during Richard’s game.  Choosing an aggressive posture is one thing.  Discovering afterward that orders are not obeyed and that the Battle lacks the actions needed to make much of it, anyway, is another.

Now, uncertainty is not necessarily a problem.  A commander should not expect everything to go according to plan.  The question is whether the uncertainty presents an interesting problem to solve or leaves too little opportunity to respond.  Does the second hurdle of the action-card draw add something useful, or does it simply compound the first hurdle of order acceptance?

A useful distinction here is between input and output uncertainty in game design.  The terminology is not as mysterious as it may sound.  Input uncertainty comes before a decision.  Discover resources available, assess the situation, and decide what to attempt.  Output uncertainty comes afterward.  Make the decision, then discover how events affect its execution.

In FoC, both the order roll and the action-card draw come after the choice of Aggression Level.  Having chosen an Aggression Level, the player receives a double dose of output uncertainty.  The intended order may not be accepted.  Even if it is, the number of actions available may leave the player unable to accomplish what was intended.  Output uncertainty is not inherently bad.  Deciding whether a plan is worth the risk can be an interesting command problem.  The existing sequence also rewards planning across several possible action-card draws.  There is a case for leaving things alone.

Still, I wonder whether both uncertainties need to follow the same commitment or single decision point.  On a poor turn, it can feel like stumbling twice on the way to the same destination.  My preference would be to reveal the action allowance before choosing Aggression Levels.  Let the player know the Battle’s capacity for the turn, then decide how ambitious to be.  A limited number of actions might suggest a limited effort.  A more generous number of actions might offer an opportunity to press forward.  Neither makes the decision automatic.  A good card need not make an attack wise, and a poor card may not make waiting sensible.  The enemy and the situation on the table still have something to say about that.

The proposed sequence would be:

1. Check command.
2. Resolve personal challenges.
3. Draw one Action Card to determine the number of actions available.
4. Choose Aggression Levels.
5. Roll to determine accepted orders.
6. Execute orders.

Move the action-card draw up in the sequence (from '5' to '3') ahead of choosing Aggression Level.  That is the extent of the change. The action-card distribution remains the same, as does the procedure for determining accepted orders.  Knowing the number of actions before choosing Aggression Level would not guarantee that the desired order is followed.

What changes is the problem facing the player.  Rather than choosing aggression and hoping sufficient actions appear, the player chooses aggression with the available actions in mind.  The focus shifts from anticipating capacity to adapting to it.  Would this make attacks easier to arrange?  Perhaps.  Would it encourage players to sit and wait for a better card?  Possibly.  Those are questions for another game, not conclusions to draw after two outings.

For now, I think it is worth a try.  Let the action-card draw define the problem the commander must solve.  Then let the order roll provide uncertainty over carrying out the solution.  To my mind, that retains enough command friction without asking both mechanisms to frustrate the same commitment.

Salem Church: A Battle of Attrition

Game #3 in the series of the Salem Church refights was on 26 September in a F2F game with my local opponent, Vol (A Miniatures Hobby Room).  After reading through the Battle Briefing, Vol gladly accepted the challenge of commanding Sedgwick and his VI Corps.

To refresh memories of the battlefield and initial army dispositions before diving into the battle account, study the following two maps to refamiliarize yourself with the battlefield.  

Salem Church battlefield

Army dispositions

From my earlier battle against Matt (see Salem Church Game #2), let's see if my Confederates can bounce back from my inglorious defeat at Matt's hands.

On to battle!

Holding the initiative, Sedgwick orders a general advance across his front toward the forest-lined Rebel dispositions.  McLaws orders his guns forward into the trees both north and south of Salem Church.  With Brooks' divisional artillery leading the way with a preparatory bombardment, Wilcox sees one of his regiments take a pounding in support of his guns to the north of Salem Church.

With hand on table in contemplation, Vol studies his prospects on seeing a successful frontal assault against these formidable Rebel dispositions.

Attacking across open ground with defenders ensconced in the trees may be a difficult task.  Sedgwick says that his boys are up for the challenge!  Forward the Yankees come.

The hand of God points the way forward for Bartlett as he attacks into the woods.  Will Bartlett see the level of success that Matt saw in Game #2?

Bartlett's attacks must wait as Sedwick launches a coordinated assault into the Confederate positions north of the Orange Plank Road (OPR).  Russell and Brown from Brooks' Division attack into the waiting mouths of Rebels guns!

The Rebel guns, supported by infantry, hold!  Brooks' attack is repulsed with heavy casualties.

From behind the Confederate lines, confidence grows as the first attacks are driven off with heavy loss.  Hoorah!

Victory is never quite so easy.  Brooks orders his brigades forward again.  Second effort pays off.  The defenders of Salem Church are ejected but at high cost.  The Federals attacking the guns are scattered.

Encouraged by taking the church and undaunted by the failure against the guns in the trees, the Federals strike again.

This time, success!  The guns positioned north of the church are overrun as one of the supporting Alabama regiments is destroyed.  The Rebel Center begins to waver under Federal pressure.

Seeing his center in jeopardy, McLaws orders Kershaw forward into action against the defenders of Williams' Farm.  In the background, Sedgwick orders Newton's Division forward and into action.  There is heavy fighting in the woods along Golin Run and over control of the Perry Farm.  Losses mount on both sides.  Semmes' Brigade is wrecked in defense of the farmhouse.  Mahone is ordered forward to plug the gap.  Perhaps an attack here will divert Sedgwick's attention from his unrelenting frontal assault up the OPR? 

Nope!  Kershaw's attack is bloodily repulsed with the 3 SC Battalion lost in the fruitless effort.

With Newton bogging down toward a stalemate near Perry Farm, Sedgwick brings Newton's guns into action as they unlimber on the OPR.  Kershaw will have a very tough job making headway against the Federal Left now.

Still, Kershaw comes on with Wofford in support on his right.  Fighting is intense against Bartlett in the dense woods.  Losses climb quickly.  Outnumbered, Bartlett finds himself in a tight spot with Rebels infiltrating his lines through the smoke and dense woods.  Bartlett's Brigade is wrecked in this fighting, but Kershaw has no time to celebrate.  Kershaw's Brigade is, likewise, broken in no small part to the pounding his brigade is taking from the Federal guns to his flank and front.

Maintaining a tenuous hold on the church and the woods immediately to the north, the Federals are holding crucial ground.  The problem for the Yankees is that their reserves are depleted and casualties continue to climb.  Semmes' Brigade, already wrecked, offers some resistance but Wilcox needs to bring up his reserves quickly at the church.  Semmes could use some help from Mahone too.

Mahone sees the danger that Semmes faces and acts.  Charging out of the woods, Mahone leads an attack against Browne's Brigade of Newton's Division.

Semmes joins in the attack but musters limited support to Mahone.  These extra men are just enough to drive the Federals back.  Browne's Brigade breaks!

With Browne (from Newton's Division) broken, each army has two brigades broken.  The next army to see a third brigade wrecked will be compelled to retire from the field.  With Brown (from Brooks' Division) still facing Rebel guns and the 10 GA, Brown is facing an unenviable situation.  With his brigade already wavering, he needs to withdraw from combat quickly to prevent the destruction of his brigade and ultimately Sedgwick's Corps.  His realization is too late!  Rebel artillery and musketry open up against Brown.  The regiment he is leading is cut down where they stand.  Brown's Brigade breaks and Sedgwick must withdraw from the field.  Luckily for Sedgwick, the route north across the Rappahannock is still open.  He can make good his escape.  The Rebels hold the field and the vital Orange Plank Road.  Victory is theirs!

Butcher's Bill

The Rebels are victorious in a really tight, hard-fought battle.  As the Butcher's Bill illustrates, losses were high in both armies.  Had Brown not broken on Turn 5, I suspect that Wilcox's Rebel Brigade would have broken on Turn 6.  This result was close.  Very close.  This was no cakewalk like we saw in my game against Matt.

Thanks, Vol, for a very exciting game.  The game took about five hours including a lunch break at a nearby Indian restaurant which Vol kindly picked up the tab.

Good stuff and great fun. 

Goor's Dutch Regiment 1704

In passing, I mentioned the start of a new joint project.  Well, the project bears fruit already with the first regiment for the War of Spanish Succession project mustering out from my co-conspirator's workbench.

Hand-delivering the regiment all the way from northern Utah, Austin presented the first of his contributions to this project today at lunch.  These 18 28mm Warlord Games' hard plastic figures muster out as Dutch regiment, Goor.  Fine looking chaps, don't you agree?  Splendid brushwork.  Flags are David's from Not by Appointment.  For inspiration and a guide, Austin is recreating the OB for Horn's Division at Blenheim.

Blenheim OB courtesy Obscure Battles

In addition to painting the figures, the bases are custom 3D prints with a clever use of inlaid unit labels.  Bases have 60mm frontage and 70mm depth.

Neat, huh?

Equally nice work on the grenadiers' hats too.

Why did Austin hand-deliver this first unit?  Well, he was making the trip up north, anyway, and our plan is to start playing some small games via Zoom.  This marks the first step toward that goal.

Where are my units?  Not far behind!  I have completed three French regiments in October with a fourth in work.  I was waiting to flag these regiments before pushing them out on parade.  With flags, in hand, that work will be finished soon.

In a bit of a rare event here, I welcome four recent new Followers.  Welcome Christian, Andy, Martin, and Alexey!  

Arab Horse Archers and a Campaign

Digging through the depths of The Lead Pile brought up three more horse archers to add into the 28mm Reconquista project.  Enough cavalry linger in the stockpile to field two or three more cavalry units.  No more horse archers, however, but heavier cavalry wielding either lances or spears.

These three horsemen are from Black Tree Design and are fine sculpts.  The only problem I have with these light horsemen is that the galloping horses do not have solid connections to the base.  Points of contact are weak.  I always must use care in cleaning them up, basing, and in use on the game table. 

Out of curiosity, I tallied the number of figures painted for this collection and came up with totals of 130 cavalry and 479 foot.  For some reason, I thought the collection was larger since two armies deployed take up a fair bit of real estate.  Besides the horse units noted above, there are enough unpainted figures to field several more foot units.

Mitteleuropa map
courtesy My Wargaming Habit

On the gaming front, Richard (My Wargaming Habit) has launched a six-player PBeM game using his Mitteleuropa Campaign.  I take on the role of Duke of Brandenburg.  We will see how I fare.  In addition to the first turn's strategic landgrab on the map shown above, Richard hosted an introduction to Flower of Chivalry rules that will be used in fighting conflicts when empires collide on the map.  In this game, Ray and I fell in defeat to Steve and Dan. Perhaps our ineptitude on the field of battle was a ruse?  Should be fun and hats off to Richard for organizing this massive undertaking.  More details about the campaign can be found on Richard's blog.

Salem Church Game #2

After seeing Sedgwick call off his efforts to break through the Confederate line at Salem Church and skedaddle back across the Rappahannock River (see Sedgwick REJECTed at Salem Church), Matt (wargamesinthedungeon) took up the challenge in Game #2 to lead Sedgwick forward into battle.  Game was fought on 20 September.  As a reminder, the battlefield map and opening battle deployments are shown in the battlefield photos below.

Battlefield map 

Initial dispositions

Sedgwick's objective is to break through Rebel positions and move west to flank Lee and relieve Hooker at Chancellorsville.  Does Sedgwick fare better in this clash?  Let's find out.

Sedgwick opens battle with his artillery.
Newton and Brooks bring up guns on the Orange Plank Road.
Wilcox's men at Salem Church take a pounding.
McLaws counters by putting Wofford into motion against the Federal Left.

Bartlett takes fire from Wofford
as Rebels advance through the dense woods.

While one of McLaws' guns rains down on Brown's 1NJ,
Bartlett orders his men forward into an all-out attack.
Rather than see his flank turned as in Game #1,
Bartlett takes the fight to the enemy!

Wofford is driven back into the woods with Bartlett in hot pursuit. 
While Bartlett's pursuit is checked...

Cobb's Legion is destroyed and Wofford is killed!

In the Federal Center and Right,
 Sedgwick orders a general advance as Browne and Shaler
plunge into the woods near Golin run. 
Wheaton is ordered to cover the center.

Pressure mounts on Wofford as
Bartlett's Federal attacks in the woods continue.

Outnumbered by about two-to-one,
the 16GA and Phillip's Legion dissolve in the heavy fighting.
Wofford's Brigade is wrecked!

Bartlett swings his 96PA to the right.
The Rebel Right is turned!

In Kershaw's attacks, the defenders of the farm throw the enemy back
but the remnants of 1NJ are overrun.
Brown brings up reserves to plug the gap.

The gap is plugged and Kershaw is driven off!

With the Rebels back in the woods,
Brown decides not to follow up to pursue into the unknown.

Wheaton brings his brigade up in the center.

Kershaw sends two more regiments forward to Williams' Farm,
while, to the right, Bartlett attacks into the woods against
an already wavering 15SC.

The 15SC is destroyed and the 3SC Battalion is thrown back.

Federal attacks are relentless.
The Rebels are driven back again.

While Brown maintains pressure to the front...

Bartlett continues his rampage against the enemy right.

Another of Kershaw's regiments is destroyed in the fighting.

Now Wheaton brings his brigade into action...

and the enemy is scattered.
Kershaw's Brigade is wavering...

and then breaks!

The entire Rebel Right has collapsed
with Wilcox only clinging on by a thread.
Federal artillery sees to it that Wilcox has had enough!
Wilcox is wrecked!

With three Rebel brigades now wrecked, the Rebels must retire from the field and try to slow Sedgwick's advance down the Orange Plank Road to Lee's flank.

Wow!  A decisive Federal victory for Sedgwick and Matt.  My poor Rebel army was completely manhandled by Sedgwick's XI Corps.  Looking at the detritus of battle, there was hardly any action north of the OPR.  Rather than seeing Bartlett dismantled in total as in Game #1, Matt put Bartlett on the offensive and he never let up!  Wofford was completely mauled by Bartlett and when Brown (and at the end) Wheaton joined in, the battle was decided quickly.

The Butcher's Bill tells the sorry tale for the Confederacy.  Unit losses were more than three-to-one against.  What a bloody game.  Very impressive victory, Matt!  I wonder if I can repay this pounding when we swap sides and take to the field again?  

Butcher's Bill

Great job, Matt, and a really entertaining game!  Game duration was a little over three hours and we played four turns.