Data from Wargames, Soldiers, and Strategy's 2024 Great Wargaming Survey (GWS) are in! Having converted the data file from Excel and recoded many of the variables into more analytics friendly forms, analysis can begin in earnest.
After a quick summarization and cursory glance at the data, one surprise pops up immediately. That is, responses to the 2024 survey saw a significant drop in participation. With 9,282 responses in 2023, the 2024 survey received only 5,995 responses. Still a respectable sample size but why the 2024 survey saw a 35% reduction in responses is, for now, a puzzle. We can speculate on contributing factors but perhaps exploring these data can provide clues? Will this drop in numbers skew or distort the parade of analyses planned for the 2024 survey reporting cycle? As a first entry in this annual procession, I kick off the series of analyses with a look at data reliability and how a handful of select demographic statistics compare from 2023 to 2024.
On Reliability of Data
Even with the non-scientific nature of data collection, the GWS has shown consistency in response results year in and year out. That result, in itself, may surprise some. Past analyses have examined data reliability topic and a topic I return to frequently. With a drop in responses, will these results and trends from past years still hold true for 2024? Some may and some may not. I suppose that we will discover this answer as we work our way through the 2024 survey questions over the next ten months. To start, let us lay the groundwork and begin with a look at the most common attributes, a selection of respondent demographics.
Location
The mix of respondents' home countries remains consistent from 2023 to 2024. A few more respondents originated in USA/Canada and Continental Europe/Scandinavia at the expense of UK/Ireland respondents but no significant change in the overall distribution.
Age Group
When examining age demographics, a shift in age cohort emerges. In 2024, every age group in the 41 and higher groups lost respondents. Every age group in the 40 and under cohorts gained ground. The 2024 survey shows a seven-percentage point shift toward the 40 and under groups. An anomaly due to reduced response rates or a harbinger of things to come?
Education
On the question of highest education level attained, results remain consistent between 2023 and 2024. No significant difference with respect to education.
Primary Interest
With an age group shift to the 40 and under cohorts, one might expect to see a shift to a more fantasy/sci-fi primary wargaming interest. This is exactly the result that the breakdown of primary interest shows. From 2023 to 2024, there is a four-percentage point shift to the Fantasy/Sci-Fi classification. What may be a surprise is that this shift toward fantasy/sci-fi draws from the "Mixed" classification and not the Historical grouping. No shift out of Historicals into Mixed. Historicals grouping remains at 28% in both 2023 and 2024 surveys.
Duration
Finally, when examining responses to how long have a respondent has been wargaming, the results are not surprising given the age and primary interest shifts seen above. The percentage of gamers having been in the hobby for 31 years or more fell by six percentage points from 2023 to 2024. While the 31 years plus group fell in total percentage, the percentage of primarily historical wargamers remains steady at 28%. Are some wargamers shifting from either Mixed or Fantasy/Sci-Fi preferences to Historicals? These data suggest this might be the case.
The main question coming to mind is why the sudden drop off in responses? Where did everyone go? While we may never know any precise answer, I wonder if any of these suggestions could pose contributing factors? - A trend toward disengaging from social media in general.
- Reduced advertising.
- A busy August.
- Survey fatigue.
- Graying (and ultimately exiting) of the hobby
- Not enough incentive (freebies) to complete the survey.
I would enjoy seeing your thoughts on why fewer gamers completed the survey and/or the demographic attributes of the GWS Class of 2024.
Having laid the groundwork, many of the survey’s wargaming specific questions remain to be explored. Along with many of the standard questions, a few new questions appear in the 2024 edition too.
Jonathan, good review as to demographics. There is quite a bit of information on trying new things out in the blogs and you tube channels that had ever been stalwarts of either Games Workshop or D&D. Sometimes historical gaming is mentioned as an opportunity. This may make a difference in a few years if there is actually movement by gamers. I do think that the loss of older players is inevitable for the obvious reasons.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the demographic trends will clearly mean the loss of people at the older end, I suspect this will be a steady trend rather than a sudden one. That suggests one or more of Jon's other factors will be significant.
ReplyDelete