While I have participated in the survey as a respondent for a few years, this year, I offered up my services to help with data analysis. Curious to gain a deeper insight into the wargaming hobby through these surveys, I veered off into the world of exploratory data analysis after remapping, recoding, and summarizing of the survey data.
Over the last three months, I have generated nearly a dozen deeper dives into survey responses in the quest to tease insight out of the mountain of data. Some of these studies confirm hobby trends and market attributes. Others provide a data-driven approach to qualifying various facets of the hobby. Assessments of market-share and direction are investigated. Still others produce a surprise or two.
Following on Jasper's The Basics post, I take a look at a longitudinal study of age demographics based upon five years of survey data. In my post entitled, The Battle of the Bulge or "OK, Boomer," I tackle the familiar tune and hand-wringing associated with the “rat in a python” bulge of our aging pool of wargamers moving through its life cycle.
If survey data and results on the state of the hobby are of interest, I encourage popping over to WSS' GWS blog to see the latest summaries and insights. If a blog post triggers questions or comments, I encourage you to leave a comment on WSS' blog. For more discussions on my thoughts regarding the survey data or analysis approaches, any question or comment may be addressed here too.
Now that's an interesting spread of data. I think we can readily take heart in the number of gamers in the 31-40 bracket.
ReplyDeleteThey must have started as gaming took a nosedive and video gaming was in its heyday, so I would reason that, despite relative 'unpopularity' with teenagers, the tactile/history/different 'feel' of wargaming still has something that people latch onto.
(...and yes, I thought I was coming to see an Ardennes battle too...:)
Darren! Sorry to disappoint you with no Ardennes action! With all of your recent WWII Ponyri Station battles, you are do for a change!
DeleteThe bulge in the 31-40 age group was a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately for historical gamers, many in this group tend towards Fantasy/Sci-Fi. That could change as they age. I will have more analysis on the Historical vs Fantasy/Sci-Fi split in follow-on posts.
As one of the particpants, it is interesting to me that 11,000 people participated, those number will help smooth out an extremes, such as company fan bases being encouraged to vote in a particular way.
ReplyDeleteWith nearly 11,000 respondents, the law of large numbers ought to kick in and help alleviate at least some of any selection bias present.
DeleteJonathan - I left this comment at the site;
ReplyDeleteI am in the UK and at the older end of the age spectrum, perhaps to be thought of as the Airfix generation. Other that reading the results of surveys like this, the only two ways that I can test wht is going on age wise is to look at wargame shows and at a local game store.
For game shows, for the 40 years I have been attending, I am often seeing the same faces now, that were going then, this applies to both punters and traders. However, i would say in the last 5 years, i am seeing a growing proportion of those in the 30 - 40 years age group, so it looks to me like the long trend of greying is doing some bottoming out - but perhaps by not enough.
In my game store, I have seen shelf stock move increasingly away from wargame stock and moving to general gaming, especially card / boardganes, but stuff like star wars and star wars legion and bolt action etc are still taking respectable shelf and table space. What I do notice here is the crowd that ‘hang around’ are much younger, I would say in the 25 - 35 year group.
Adding this sort of view to the survey probably suggests a smaller proportion entering the traditional hobby at the younger end and bringing a wider diversity of game play with them - what that will look like in 15 years, who knows :-)
Excellent feedback, Norm! I am glad you took the time to re-post your comment here. There seems to be a big lag between posting on the WSS blog and seeing a comment appear. In fact, I am still waiting! I am told it is a caching issue.
DeleteYou are a fount of knowledge with respect to the hobby. With your longevity in the hobby and your "boots on the ground" at shows, your perspective and insights are valuable.
I like the "Airfix" Generation! Add me to this cadre!
As always, I appreciate your comments.
Very impressed with your data skills (as well as your hobby skills too, of course). Oh, and "rat in a python" is a new one for me! :)
ReplyDeleteThanks, Dean! "Rat in a python" is good one and glad you liked it!
DeleteI'm not the least bit surprised you were added to the team after having witnessed your ability for analytic deep dives over the years. Well done! :-)
ReplyDeleteChristopher
I appreciate your vote of confidence!
DeleteI will head over to the site and check out results 😀
ReplyDeleteGood!
DeleteI wonder if there may be another form of self-selection in that people who respond to surveys are likely to be in the older age bracket, and also a potential bias toward the demographic of those who read or are familiar with WSS and magazines in general? That's not to invalidate a really interesting piece of research, but I'd hate to be out there trying to reach or survey those in their 20's. I can remember a time when election results could be predicted with a fairly high level of accuracy, now the pre-election polls are all over the place mainly because there are large segments of the population that just cannot be reached.
ReplyDeleteAll in all very interesting, and it certainly gives a lot of hope for the future (especially if some of the GW fan base eventually incorporate historical gaming).
Hi Lawrence! Without a scientific sampling method in place, inferences should be proposed with care. With this large sample size, results can still be meaningful. Your self-selection hypotheses are as valid as another.
DeletePerhaps the older cohorts are more likely to participate in online surveys? I don't know. Familiarity with and subscribing to WSS certainly would seem to put the thumb on the scale for that population. I do not subscribe to WSS but I do pick up the occasional issue. I have seen this survey heavily advertised in the hobby press and online. That may expand the scope of respondents beyond WSS.
Great thoughts on the topic and I appreciate your thoughtful comments!
For a second I thought we were gonna y’all about how many Wargamers slowly gain weight over the years...
ReplyDeleteGood job doing your community service and helping with the data interpretation. You are a benefit to the hobby community. And I mean that, not trying to be funny. 😀
Also, I see that I am only like 15 comments behind Norm on the ‘top commentators’ list. I’m totally gonna over take him with a top speed sprint. 😀
Delete(Now I’m trying to funny).
Jasper did mention the typical wargamer's midriff in his "The Basics" post.
DeleteI am very appreciative that you find this analysis interesting and in some small way contributing to the hobby. Very kind of you!
Full speed ahead, Stew!
DeleteLike Norm above I notice the age of people at shows, historical gamers are the 'Bulge' generation and the 30-40 bracket seem to be gamers in general. Obviously there are cross overs but younger wargamers are still in the minority. I keep my troops in their boxes in the Post Office and only one kid in all the time they have sat there has shown any interest, and only to look at them. In my day I would have been at that shop every day.
ReplyDeleteGeorge, like Norm, you have a keen sense of the pulse of the hobby from the number of shows you attend. These data suggest the same as your observational experience. That is, historical gamers are typically older. I have a lot of further studies to share addressing the topics of age and gaming period and who is playing what.
DeleteThanks for your feedback!
Well done for doing your bit! I would say in my experience of my nephew's gaming they started off with Warhammer 40k and in their 30's moved over to historical gaming so there is hope the hobby won't entirely die out with the demise of the airfix generation!
ReplyDeleteBest Iain
Glad to see that you find these data distillations interesting! Your first-hand experience is good evidence that the historical gaming facet of the hobby may not become extinct. I know gamers who began with 40K and moved on to historicals as well.
DeleteThanks for contributing your personal insights!
Thanks for this perceptive analysis, Jonathan. You were definitely the right person for the job.
ReplyDeleteAs a clergyman, I find interesting echoes between the "graying of the hobby" and the "graying of the church" discussions, both rooted in the same "will we have a future" anxiety. My answer to both is "yes, there will be a future, but we may not live to see it and it won't be like the past".
My immediate circle of gaming friends are like me, mid to late 50s or older, but I do see younger gamers at the few conventions I go to. They don't do what my friends do necessarily and they may not keep historical gaming going in a way that grognards may approve of, but the same is true of the church. My denomination may diminish, but the church writ large will continue in some fashion.
I started my hobby life with Britains and Airfix as a boy, went from old school D&D and other RPGs in high school, hung out with the WRG generation for a while in university, and as an adult have played GW 40K w my son, found a home in the Too Fat Lardie community, and dabble in fringe projects like pulp. It's been a long journey, and may be true of the hobby writ large. It will evolve. With the rise of Kickstarter, 3D printing, self-published rules, etc, I think the hobby will be a lot more interesting and diverse in the decades to come.
Michael! So good to hear from you!
DeleteYour insight and recognition into the "graying of xxxx" is eye-opening. Could cries of the demise of both historical wargaming and religion be driven from our perspective as members of the Baby Boom generation? Did the generation(s) before or after BB concern themselves with such notions as to what happens when we are gone? Is this, in part, due to the size and influence of this generation? Since Baby Boomers have been targeted by marketers as a large and powerful block continuously, perhaps, the "ME" generation is a bit egocentric as a cohort in general?
Excellent post, Michael! I am very pleased you took the time to respond.
Thank you!