Painting Seasonality

I have been bemoaning my lethargy at the painting desk since the arrival of spring.  Painting production has fallen off from the respectable start in the first three months of the year.  Looking back at earlier analysis on my own painting seasonality and routine, I began to consider that this recent perception may not be anything out of my normal cyclical efforts at the workbench.

Let's see what the data suggest.

Grabbing the data from the Painting Log and loading them into my favorite data analysis software, I set to work.  Long time readers may recall that painting results have been diligently tracked since late 1995.

First place to start, here, is a tally of painted figures in the first five months of 2026.  The figure below shows actual counts of figures painted by month.  Reaching 100 painted figures in one month is always a stretch goal for me.  Rarely happens but noteworthy when it does.  Notice that the very respectable (to me) output in March was followed by a less than stellar count in April.  This pattern happens regularly.  I reckon I experience some painting fatigue after a big month and then back off time spent at the table in the next.  

Actual Painted Figure Counts in 2026

Raw figure counts can distort actual effort, though.  To compensate for the mix of figures and figure sizes painted, the counts are adjusted by figure size.  To make this adjustment, I use The Analog Hobbies Painting Challenge Painting Points conversion.  The graph below shows these raw counts converted to Painting Points.  Notice how January and February surpass March's totals when factoring in figure size.  January and February must have seen more 28mm figures cross the table than did March.  April totals still look anemic no matter the scheme used to count.   

Adjusted Painted Figure Counts in 2026

Back to my initial question regarding painting cycles, seasonality, and whether this year is an anomaly or fits into standard operating procedure.  The graph below shows monthly totals in Painting Points from 1996-2025.  That's thirty years of data!  The solid line super-imposed on the bar graph denotes the trend for monthly painting points.  Notice that production has fallen off from the more productive years of 2010-2020.  "TOTPOINTS" are painting figure counts adjusted for Painting Points.

Monthly production and trend in Painting Points.

For seasonality tests, I use times series decompositions to separate the various components of the Painting Log time series.  I stick to examining adjusted figure counts which are adjusted by Painting Points.  I skip over the intermediate steps to series decomposition but provide a graphic showing these seasonal decompositions in the graphic below: 

Seasonal decompositions by Painting Points

A bunch of squiggles for the various components.  Can a seasonal component be found herein?

Seasonal Painting Tendencies 1996-2025

Looking at the seasonal painting tendencies graph, above, my painting does exhibit some seasonal tendencies.  The decomposition suggests a clear yearly seasonal pattern in figure-painting output with the strongest positive seasonality in late fall and early winter and weaker output in spring and early summer.  In other words, my painting productivity appears to rise and fall in a repeating annual cycle rather than moving randomly.

This seasonality looks like a low-in-summer, high-in-winter painting pattern.  One plausible explanation is that I finish more figures in the colder months.  Since I live in the northern hemisphere, indoor hobby time increases in colder months and competing outdoor activities decrease.  The late-year surge is strong enough that it is unlikely to be a small random fluctuation.

What does the graphic suggest for each month's output?

• January.  Slightly above the average (Monthly Mean).  A decent start to the year, but not a major peak.
• February.  Still a little above average.  Productivity holds up before the spring dip.
• March.  Clear drop below average.  The beginning of the low-output season.
• April.  Still below average, but not as weak as March.  A partial recovery, not a full rebound.
• May.  Another dip below average. This is one of the quieter months in the cycle.
• June.  Less negative than March, April, and May.  Productivity improves a bit, but it is still not strong.
• July. Another weak month.  Summer still looks like a trough for figure painting.
• August.  Back above average.  This is the first noticeable turn upward after the summer slump.
• September.  Falls below average again.  The recovery is not smooth yet.
• October. Strongly above average.  This looks like the beginning of the peak season.
• November.  Very strong output.  The seasonal upswing continues.
• December.  Highest point of the year.  This is the clearest peak in the cycle.

While my 2026 painting output follows a similar trend to the seasonality study, May 2026 was up as opposed to down from April.  May only outpaced April this year due to a very last-minute push to get some figures across the painting table before month's end.  So far, the seasonal pattern appears mostly intact for 2026.  Now, June may see a different turn, however, since painting time may be at a premium.

The seasonality offers a strong enough pattern that these data could be useful in planning hobby goals. How so?  If planning painting goals around this annual cycle, aim for the biggest output in late fall and winter.  Treat spring and summer as lower-intensity months for smaller projects or preparation.

Perhaps I am not such a slacker but a prisoner of my own tendencies?