Assyrian Heavy Infantry II in 25mm

A second, sixteen figure stand of heavy infantry marches out from the painting desk.  Like the heavy infantry before, this stand is comprised of either elite or guard footmen on a standard Impetvs-sized base.

With two heavy foot units in the books, time to turn attention towards a couple of bow units as support.  Under Impetvs, archers can be joined with heavy foot to form a large unit.  The caveat is that the bow and spear must be of the same class.  That is, elite foot can only be joined with elite bow.  Given that, the bowmen will have helmets and likely follow a similar color scheme to their accompanying heavy foot.  Of course, not so many figures will be present for a bow stand.

Figures are from Wargames Foundry's excellent Biblical range.

Battle of Montebello 1800 - the Setup

Montebello battlefield 

Having finished the long running series of battles covering the conflict at Montebello in 1859, attention now turns toward the earlier 1800 battle of Montebello.  Since the gaming table was set up with the intention of fighting both battles over the same layout, it seemed a waste of effort to remove the game board before completing the second of the planned, dual battles.

The only change from the 1859 battlefield was the removal of the railroad.  Rather than fighting the battle over the left two-thirds of the table as in the 1859 battle, the 1800 battle focuses on the rightmost two-thirds of the gaming table.  Deployments for the battle are annotated on the map above with key terrain features highlighted.

Montebello 1800 marks the first battle for my long-in-progress 1799 project.  The first battle for the project was likely to be a French vs Russian affair with Suvorov leading the Allied cause but with Montebello 1859 on the schedule, why not kill two battles with one table?  Suvorov will get his chance to match wits with the French at another time.

The Battle of Montebello was a clash occurring five days in advance of the larger Battle of Marengo near Alessandria.  Sandwiched between the Po River to the north and the Apennines to the south, the road bisecting the battle was the major East-West conduit connecting Alessandria in the west and Piacenza in the east.  Actually this road runs from Turin in the west all the way to Venice in the east.   

What may seem odd at first glance is that the French are attacking west (towards France) while the Austrians are attacking towards the east.  Why this situation?  A few days before, Genoa fell to Austrian FML Melas after a lengthy siege.  Rather than attacking west towards Nice and the Riviera, Melas finds the French Army of Reserve in his rear after Napoleon's daring passage of the Alps.  With Lannes in Piacenza and Napoleon in Milan, the Austrians are cut off from the safety of Mantua and a path back to Austria.

That sets the stage for the Battle of Montebello.  Lannes is pressing west towards Voghera and Alessandria with instructions to destroy the Austrian field army.  The Austrians under Ott are pressing east to destroy what they believed to be a weak French force.  Even if the destruction of Lannes is not possible, preventing Lannes from linking up with Napoleon is of utmost importance. 

The Order of Battle, Reinforcement Schedule, and Victory Conditions are presented in the graphic below.  Each box on the OB denotes one battalion of infantry, one squadron of cavalry, or one battery of guns.

OB, Reinforcement Schedule, and Victory Conditions

The plan is to go through this scenario initially on the next Friday Night at the Fights episode.  Note that the French have better quality troops and leadership but no artillery.  Lannes will also be outnumbered a little less than 3:2.  Will history repeat itself?  We will see.

Measuring Perceptions of Uncertainty

An interesting study came across my desk recently.  The study highlighted experiment results of classifying event likelihoods based on textual descriptors rather than assigning explicit probabilities.  After reading the study, my thoughts turned towards the application of these results to wargame design.  Yes, wargaming never seems too far out of mind.

The study discussed in the book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Heuer, 1999), details the results of an experiment whereby 23 NATO military officers accustomed to reading intelligence reports were tasked with assigning probability of occurrence given "verbal expressions of uncertainty" typically found in an intelligence report.

Having recently read Michael Lewis' latest book, The Undoing Project, 

Heuer's work struck a familiar chord.  Lewis retells the careers of noted Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and their groundbreaking work on decision analysis and bias.  Turns out that Heuer cites Tversky and Kahneman in his work.

The results of this study are summarized in Figure 18 from Heuer Chapter 12.

Each analyst was given a number of sentences typically found in intelligence reports and asked to assign a probability to each.  Sentences were the same with the exception of the verbal expression of uncertainty.  For example, a sentence might begin, "There is a very good chance that..."

The descriptors are based Kent's 1964 work (see Kent) who suggested standardizing phrases and their associated probability ranges.

A similar experiment was repeated in 2015 based on input from 46 Reddit users (see Zonination).

Since a number of the descriptors resulted in either overlapping ranges or the same median in the Zonination experiment, I reduced the number of classifications to a more manageable level.  My results below:

What do these results suggest?  To me, the rows suggest an odds ratio using verbal expressions of uncertainty rather than precise odds.  Also, the distribution of responses are variable depending at which row of the table one finds oneself. Some responses have narrow ranges with few outliers; others have wider ranges will more outliers.  Think of this table as a CRT with Combat Odds (Statements) along the Y-axis and Combat Results spread out along the X-axis.  

What does this have to do with wargame design?  Maybe something; maybe nothing.  I could envision situational modifiers moving a result either up or down the rows either increasing or decreasing the probability of success.

In most games, the exact probability (or range of probabilities) of a particular outcome is known or can be computed with relative certainty.  Did our historical counterparts have that precision in results?  Not likely.  They assessed the outcome based on limited evidence at hand.  In their own decision-making process, commanders assessed and concluded that an attack had a "very good chance" of succeeding.

A few questions for thought until the next time I pick up this topic:

1. What if we approach game design from this mindset?
2. If this experiment was repeated with the survey given to wargamers, would the probability assignments look similar?
3. With our experience in games and game theory, do we assign probabilities differently from intelligence analysts?
4. Is there interest in conducting a similar experiment? 

If this topic has stirred up some interest, I encourage reading Heuer (especially Part III) and Kent.  Both have links to the original texts.

Bourbaki Panorama - Luzern, Switzerland

Nancy and I returned late Sunday night from a ten day holiday in Switzerland.  Riding the rails and plying the waters across the beautiful Swiss countryside was a pleasure.  Even with a late April/early May travel itinerary, the Swiss weather, on balance, was quite cooperative.  On days when good weather mattered, it was.  One stop on our two day visit to Luzern was the Bourbaki Panorama in downtown Luzern.

Illustrating an episode of history from the Franco-Prussian War, the Bourbaki Panorama artist, Edouard Castres, painted a large circular panorama covering 1,100 square meters. Completed in 1881, the panorama was initially designated the Panorama des Verrieres and displayed in Geneva.  In 1889, the panorama was moved to Luzern and a building was built specifically to house the work.

The Bourbaki Panorama depicts the situation at the Swiss border post of Les Verrieres in February 1871.  On that date, the French Army of the East under General Bourbaki chose to cross the Swiss border and subject itself to internment in Switzerland over capitulation to the Prussians who were hounding its every move.

After negotiations, on 1 February 1871 over 87,000 Frenchmen crossed the border, laid down their arms, and were shipped off to cities throughout Switzerland until their release on 14 March 1871.  The French government agreed to reimburse Switzerland 12 million francs for the care of these soldiers during this internment.

The scenes of the panorama show the point when the French cross the border and lay down their arms to be marched off to internment camps under the watchful eye of the Swiss.

Augmenting the circular painting are three dimensional displays of camp scenes using full scale wax figures and period artifacts.  The effect of 360 degree circular painting combined with 3D displays lends a great deal of depth to the experience and draws the viewer into the painting.  An observer experiences a sense of being a part of the spectacle.  The effect is a bit eerie but marvelous nonetheless.

Castres was a logical choice for this commission since he was a volunteer stretcher-bearer at Les Verrieres.  Really, a stunning piece of work.

If in Luzern, I recommend a stop at the panorama.  For more details on Bourbaki, Castres, and the panorama, see, The Arrival of Bourbaki's Army at Les Verrières on the International Committee of the Red Cross website.  

Assyrian Heavy Infantry I in 25mm

After working my way through the rehabilitation project on nine Assyrian chariots, (see  Assyrian Chariot Pass-in-Review), the refurbishment is complete.  Attention now turns to fielding new, non-wheeled components of an Assyrian Army.  

First out of the blocks, is one Impetvs-sized stand of heavy infantry of sixteen figures.  I crammed them in fairly tightly onto the base to produce a good massed effect.  Armed with helmets and large shields, this formation is likely either elite or guard.  Given that, they are all attired in matching tunics and kilts.  

Sixteen, 25mm figures on one base is a weighty matter.  When plopped down onto the gaming table, it has quite a bit of weight and not prone to accidental displacement.  With luck, they will fight as formidably as they look.  Figures are Wargames Foundry.

Moorish Archers for the Reconquista

Many of the Impetvs Army lists for the Muslim forces lists a stand of heavy infantry supported by a missile stand.  This missile support is in the form of either bow or crossbow.  When in support, the missile stand is combined with the heavy infantry stand to create a large unit.  Since a number of heavy infantry stands have already been fielded for the project, several 'T' type stands are needed to bring the back half of these combined large units into parity.

As most of the figures in the Reconquista project, these archers and their two supporting spearmen are from Black Tree Design.  Great figures.  With unadorned robes, these figures paint quickly and can be fielded with little fuss.  In fact, a second stand of archers is at the painting desk.

In a similar situation to the Great Italian Wars project discussed in a recent post, the Reconquista project ought to get out onto the gaming table for a little action.

So many projects, so little time...

Black Bande Arquebusier in 25mm

Following not too far behind the very large Landsknecht Black Bande pike block for the 28mm Great Italian Wars project (see Black Bande), a nine figure stand of arquebusier departs the painting desk.

Unlike the pikemen in the Black Bande pike block, the Impetvs 'T' stand of arquebusier are from Wargames Foundry.  As always, the Foundry figures are well sculpted and look quite serviceable when painted.

What is up next for the project?  Well, hopefully, a game!  While Jake's collection has seen action on the gaming table, mine is yet to witness its initial taste of battle.  Getting both collections into battle would be an impressive sight and likely consume a good portion of my 12' x 6' foot table.

On the painting front, a 'T' unit of Italian crossbowmen are presently in the painting queue but they are a long way down in priority.  A trio of Perry Stradiots looks like an interesting candidate to work into the queue as well.