To parse and interpret this large body of text, machine learning techniques are introduced. Specifically, a variety of cluster analysis techniques are applied to the survey data. These statistical methods help uncover underlying data associations and reduce thousands of unique words (tokens) to a smaller dataset. The aim of this data reduction step is to transform unstructured text into a manageable set of representative tokens while preserving essential meaning.
After routine preprocessing and tokenization, the dataset produced 2,719 unique terms with associated frequencies. A further data step involved removing near-zero variance terms thereby reducing this set dramatically to just nineteen key word tokens. These nineteen tokens are:
games, people, painting, miniatures, history, research, collect, model, terrain, table, fun, creative, army, build, aspect, good, time, hobby, like.
With the dataset reduced from over 4,000 terms to fourteen, cluster analysis provides the next layer of insight. The resulting dendrogram (see Figure 1) reveals a clear and intuitive structure that I break down layer by layer.
| Figure 1 |
The dendrogram organizes the “most liked” aspects of wargaming by how closely respondents associate the tokens. Joining at a lower height in the dendrogram indicates a stronger relative relationship with higher splits indicating more separation.
At the highest level, "games" stands apart from all other terms, joining the rest of the terms only at a relatively large distance. This indicates that respondents view gaming as distinct reinforces the notion that gaming, itself, is the central facet of the hobby. From the dendrogram (see Figure 2), "games" is not intertwined with the other activities.
The next major split separates "people" from the remaining terms (see Figure 3). Together, this creates a clear hierarchy in a three-cluster solution of:
- Games (most distinct)
- People (second most distinct)
- Everything else (more tightly interrelated)
Slicing across the dendrogram at a practical level (around mid-height) yields four meaningful groupings (see Figure 5):
- Games (standalone)
- People (standalone)
- Painting/miniatures (craft-focused sub-cluster)
- All remaining hobby activities (a blended cluster of building, modeling, and researching)
| Figure 5 |
What can we infer from this analysis of survey respondents' likes about wargaming?
To begin, analysis supports the notion that gaming, social interaction, and painting emerge as primary drivers. All other activities form a supporting ecosystem. Analysis also suggests a structure to the wargaming hierarchy. That is, wargaming should not be viewed as a single, unified, activity but as a combination of semi-independent domains. If we return to the three-cluster solution, the clusters are:
- Gaming is central but conceptually separate.
- Social interaction is nearly as important and also distinct.
- Everything else forms an interconnected hobby engine of crafting, researching, and building.
| Figure 6 |
- Games (standalone)
- People (standalone)
- Painting/miniatures (craft-focused sub-cluster)
- All remaining hobby activities (a blended cluster of building, modeling, and researching)
Well I can't being to pretend to understand how you went about sorting out this data (it's all Greek to me!), but good to see the results are the same, despite being a few years apart. Certainly the game and people would be in my Top 2, but probably the 'Other' would be third these days, as I much prefer the research, narrative campaigns etc to painting, but then I do have plenty of painted figures now, so the 'pressure' to produce is less.
ReplyDeleteBTW, this post turned up within probably 12 hours of posting, as it shows it as 6.00am, but is that your time or ours? My latest post still hasn't 'appeared', even after 24 hours now:(.
Hey, Steve! If you could recall what you wrote in for this question, that would be interesting. I could detail the step-by-step process how text mining and cluster analysis works but then I REALLY would be boring readers! Maybe give this analysis some thought and then come back to re-read may help?
DeleteMy post time is 0600 PDT. I originally had the post set to publish at midnight, but when I checked-in earlier this morning, it still had not hit the blogroll after six hours. So, I republished and it showed up in the blogroll an hour or so later. This "feature" is ridiculous!
Yes, the feature has delayed my posting, as I have been waiting to see if anyone else "discovers" my post about my solo WW2 game - but its stalled about 65% of usual comments - 21 v mid 30's.
DeleteI went looking for your post, read, enjoyed, and thought I commented! The fall off in comments can be due to seasonal fluctuations. That’s my take, anyway.
DeleteBizarrely your post is now shoing as only 2 hours old in my Reading List! Also I've replied to posts on my Blog, only for them to not be published. All rather strange to say the least...
DeleteThat IS strange! I looked at my Reading List and it dos not show the correct posting time either. I had a recent reply to Keith’s blog not post either.
DeleteIt is all quite random. My latest post turned up within a couple of hours, yet the previous one was 12 hours.
DeleteExcellent analysis Jonathan. The groups where games and people are equally important, and everyone talks about painting for the next game, are certainly the best.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Darren! Games, people, and painting are certainly the top choices of the survey respondents.
DeleteAnother interesting analysis of the survey. I do enjoy seeing these posts they are fascinating.
ReplyDeleteGlad you find these analysis posts of interest, Donnie!
DeletePeople like to play,
ReplyDeletePainting miniatures to do so,
Wargamers are constant.
Falling back on haiku as a means of communication....☺☺☺
Neil
You may be popularizing a new blog communication form.
DeleteHere is my reply...
Friends debate around the table
Laughter breaks through measured turns
Battles bind us fast
I have no recollection of filling in a free form response to what I like best about wargaming - if it was optional, there is a high possibility I didn't do it!
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I think I would probably agree collecting and painting the figures then playing the games are the best parts for me - and I am almost equally happy to play a solo game these days, so seeing other people is still in there, but not equal top, I don't think.
The open response questions were on the last page of the survey. It was optional. Look for them in this year’s survey.
DeleteI always have problems recalling my responses too, although they all seem to be reasonable to me as they would have been fifty years ago. I think the four cluster solution nicely distils the main components though. I find solo gaming appeals to me far less than it did forty years ago and the interaction with a live opponent is more fun.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Lawrence! Solo gaming was once a staple for my gaming before COVID brought about the rise of remote gaming.
DeleteFunny Lawrence, I feel precisely the opposite! Not that I want to do solo exclusively, but I often enjoy it as much as any other game!
DeleteGames and people makes sense as most enjoyed, and I would concur, with history, painting, terrain, scenario design and collecting all being top aspects, with competition being low down.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the wisdom of the crowd too!
DeleteMust admit I can''t remember what I wrote as a response. Likely around playing the game and collecting / painting miniatures
ReplyDeleteThose are good choices, Neil!
DeleteGreat post Jon. I haven't a clue what I wrote, but I'd guess, geeting together with my mates, researching, painting, history and throwing god like orange D6!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Ray! Your recent orange dice rolling was Godlike, for sure!
DeleteI stand as another who can't recall their post, but I am guessing (for me!) that response was fairly brief, even allowing for free text.
ReplyDeleteThe process of collecting data by keyword (is that fair?) is fascinating, not only for the results, but as a clean way of harvesting information.
Brief, for you, might be a first! Tokenizing each word and then counting frequencies and computing associations with other tokens is fascinating and insightful, indeed.
DeleteA great analysis Jonathan and very interesting. I like how you have been able to distill all the inputs down into a small number of categories. That is very clever.
ReplyDeleteI would guess if we all thought about it deeply we would come to the same conclusions but it is good to get the stats to back it up.....and to save me having to think too much 😂
Glad you enjoyed the analysis and that it made sense! The results may be intuitive but is reassuring that survey results confirm those intuitions
DeleteHi Jonathan,
ReplyDeleteCracking analysis! Like everyone else in the comments, I haven't the foggiest memory of what I actually wrote in my response, but it's deeply reassuring to see the machine learning tools back up our collective wargaming intuition. Thanks for doing the heavy lifting to decode the data!
Cheers, Andy
You are welcome, Andrew! Glad you enjoyed the analysis. It is reassuring that our intuition is supported by data.
DeleteExcellent analysis, Jonathan. It's reassuring that there are no surprises in the results.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Richard! Yes, reassuring, for sure.
DeleteFor me, games and people are the least important. May explain why clubs have done more to put me off the hobby than anything else.
ReplyDeleteYou sound like a friend of mine who claims that wargaming would be great hobby without the people.
DeleteAll sounds pretty much in tge order that I put my views down, happy to be part of the majority, always interesting to read your analysis!
ReplyDeleteBest Iain
Thanks, Iain!
DeleteI vaguely remember filling out some thing freestyle in the survey. Jonathan, your summary of the process and the groups of data representing the facets of the hobby was instructive. Given the approach, I would be surprised if much changes.
ReplyDeleteIf everyone replies with similar "likes" each year, then little change could be expected. What interests me is that in free text, respondents can enter any words and sentences as the mood strikes. After all of those variations and combinations are processed, the same key words come up time and time again. To me, that is fascinating and shows a lot of commonalities among the wargaming sample who make the effort to complete the survey.
DeleteThank goodness for folks like you Jon who have the patience and intelligence to work through all this gathered data and make something of it all.
ReplyDeleteCan't say I own either trait!
Good to see there is consistency in the responses over the two surveys though. No idea what, if anything I wrote in that last box of the survey though. Probably something about burgers and beer, I'm sure.
You are too kind, Dai, and you under-estimate yourself. “Burgers and beer”…I’ll look for that!
DeleteI can't recall my response, but it likely to read: miniatures, history, people, painting, terrain, games and then the lesser categories.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mark!
Delete