Where Did Everyone Go?

Data from Wargames, Soldiers, and Strategy's 2024 Great Wargaming Survey (GWS) are in! Having converted the data file from Excel and recoded many of the variables into more analytics friendly forms, analysis can begin in earnest.  

After a quick summarization and cursory glance at the data, one surprise pops up immediately.  That is, responses to the 2024 survey saw a significant drop in participation.  With 9,282 responses in 2023, the 2024 survey received only 5,995 responses.  Still a respectable sample size but why the 2024 survey saw a 35% reduction in responses is, for now, a puzzle.  We can speculate on contributing factors but perhaps exploring these data can provide clues?  Will this drop in numbers skew or distort the parade of analyses planned for the 2024 survey reporting cycle?  As a first entry in this annual procession, I kick off the series of analyses with a look at data reliability and how a handful of select demographic statistics compare from 2023 to 2024.

On Reliability of Data
Even with the non-scientific nature of data collection, the GWS has shown consistency in response results year in and year out.  That result, in itself, may surprise some.  Past analyses have examined data reliability topic and a topic I return to frequently.  With a drop in responses, will these results and trends from past years still hold true for 2024?  Some may and some may not.  I suppose that we will discover this answer as we work our way through the 2024 survey questions over the next ten months.  To start, let us lay the groundwork and begin with a look at the most common attributes, a selection of respondent demographics.

Location

The mix of respondents' home countries remains consistent from 2023 to 2024.  A few more respondents originated in USA/Canada and Continental Europe/Scandinavia at the expense of UK/Ireland respondents but no significant change in the overall distribution.

Age Group

When examining age demographics, a shift in age cohort emerges.  In 2024, every age group in the 41 and higher groups lost respondents.  Every age group in the 40 and under cohorts gained ground.  The 2024 survey shows a seven-percentage point shift toward the 40 and under groups.  An anomaly due to reduced response rates or a harbinger of things to come?

Education

On the question of highest education level attained, results remain consistent between 2023 and 2024.  No significant difference with respect to education.

Primary Interest

With an age group shift to the 40 and under cohorts, one might expect to see a shift to a more fantasy/sci-fi primary wargaming interest.  This is exactly the result that the breakdown of primary interest shows.  From 2023 to 2024, there is a four-percentage point shift to the Fantasy/Sci-Fi classification.  What may be a surprise is that this shift toward fantasy/sci-fi draws from the "Mixed" classification and not the Historical grouping.  No shift out of Historicals into Mixed.  Historicals grouping remains at 28% in both 2023 and 2024 surveys.

Duration

Finally, when examining responses to how long have a respondent has been wargaming, the results are not surprising given the age and primary interest shifts seen above.  The percentage of gamers having been in the hobby for 31 years or more fell by six percentage points from 2023 to 2024.  While the 31 years plus group fell in total percentage, the percentage of primarily historical wargamers remains steady at 28%.  Are some wargamers shifting from either Mixed or Fantasy/Sci-Fi preferences to Historicals?  These data suggest this might be the case.

   

The main question coming to mind is why the sudden drop off in responses?  Where did everyone go?  While we may never know any precise answer, I wonder if any of these suggestions could pose contributing factors?

• A trend toward disengaging from social media in general.
• Reduced advertising.
• A busy August.
• Survey fatigue.
• IT survey capture glitch losing thousands of responses.
• Graying (and ultimately exiting) of the hobby
• Not enough incentive (freebies) to complete the survey.

I would enjoy seeing your thoughts on why fewer gamers completed the survey and/or the demographic attributes of the GWS Class of 2024.

Having laid the groundwork with a demographics profile, many of the survey’s wargaming specific questions remain to be explored.  Along with many of the standard questions, a few new questions appear in the 2024 edition too.

Mikata Ga Hara #2

Last week, I enjoyed a second chance at a one-to-one playing of the Feudal Japan Battle of Mikata Ga Hara.  In this second refighting of the battle, I faced Reject Richard in a remote game.  Now Richard has published an excellent overview of the battle (see Battle of Mikata Ga Hara) from his (Ieyasu Tokugawa's) perspective providing comprehensive accounting of the ebb and flow of battle.  With such an accessible account of the battle, no need for me to tramp over exactly the same ground again.  I recommend visiting Richard's blog to read his account of the battle.

Instead of a full report, I will focus on a few of the memorable moments in battle.  Many of these moments highlight the events brought forward in Richard's battle report although augmented by a few close-up photos of the action.  Off we go!

Holding initiative on Turn 1 and with no chance of seeing any enemy response, Tokugawa moves his army into position and within striking distance of Takeda's unsuspecting army.  On T2, Tokugawa strikes in the center.  After preparing the attack with missile fire, Ieyasu sends Ashigaru spear forward to throw enemy teppo out from the woods.  Takeda's teppo is driven out of the woods with heavy casualties.  The Ashigaru spearmen follow up in pursuit.  The body of beaten teppo falls back such that its right is supported by Samurai foot.  Catching the teppo as it retires, the Ashigaru scatter the teppo before the Samurai can bring their weight to bear.  In sympathy, the Samurai retire.     

Tokugawa uses his "ambush" turns positioning his army.

Driven out of the woods, teppo retires with heavy casualties.

Takeda's Samurai foot falls back in the face of pursuit. 

Having now awakened to the danger he faces, Takeda attacks vigorously in the center.  Wanting to disrupt his enemy's plan to redeploy against his right, Takeda launches a charge with his heavy Samurai horsemen.  Into the enemy center they go!  Failing to get off a volley of arrows as the mounted Samurai approach, the enemy archers will not stand.  Driven back, the Samurai press on in pursuit.  In pursuit, Takeda's Samurai overrun the enemy standing in their path.  A body of horse archers moves forward to control the gap now opening in the enemy's center.  

Charge...

pursuit...

annihilation!

Seeing his center torn in two, Ieyasu turns his own body of Samurai horsemen about to address the rampaging Samurai cavalry in his rear.  Charging toward the enemy, he successfully catches them in the rear.  The pride of Takeda's army is dispatched.  Ieyasu leads his Samurai on cutting down any stragglers as pursuit takes them far from the center of battle.    

Ieyasu wheels about...

to find the enemy still within his grasp.

Attacked from the rear, Takeda's Samurai are vanquished!

With the threat to his rear eliminated, Ieyasu turns back to the face the center.  Pushing forward with a body of foot Samurai, Takeda’s archers are driven back.  Following up in pursuit, the archers are dispatched.  Enemy horse archers fall back in sympathy.  Ieyasu's Samurai are nearing Takeda's command tent.  Before these Samurai can reach the enemy’s headquarters, they are intercepted by Ashigaru spear peeled off from Yamagata's Right Wing.  Not expecting an attack from this quarter, Ieyasu's Samurai footmen fall back.   

Takeda's Samurai attack...

and the enemy vanquished!
The path to Takeda's HQ is open!

That opening is slammed shut when
the Samurai are attacked and driven off.

At this point in battle, casualties are heavy and both armies are teetering near their break points.  Eliminating one more unit could break the enemy.  Which would fall first?  The answer is not long in coming.  As Takeda's Samurai foot in the center falls back from enemy spear pressure, the warriors are hit in the flank by enemy horse archers.  Letting loose arrows as they charge in, the Samurai formation collapses.  This battle is over.  

Army Breakpoints show all tied at 2-2.

Yamagata's horse archers deliver the coup de grace!

Wow!  As in the first game with Mark (see Getting in a Game!), the battle came down to both armies nearing their breaking point with equal pips on the clock remaining.  With battle attrition mounting and the Dead Pile growing, the next army to lose a unit would lose the battle.  Another tight contest that could have seen the end result tip to Richard easily.  Even beginning with a numerical advantage, my Takeda Army had its hands full with Richard's tenacious attacks and careful defenses from the get-go.  Richard fought very well throughout the game.  Even his dice were agreeable!

Fighting on the center left.

Another great battle with tension and drama throughout.  Great fun!  We should bring another one-on-one game to the table.  Before that, we have a Full Reject game planned for next week.  Should be fun!

Hard fighting on the far left.

Thanks again, Richard, for a very enjoyable session.  I loved it!

Prussian Infantry On The March

With two games on last week's schedule, painting time was at a minimum.  Given that situation, seeing 48 figures readying themselves to march out from the painting desk by week's end was a welcome sight.  Work on these fellows has consumed about ten days at the painting desk.  

Mustering out today are 48 Prussian infantry for the fledgling 15mm FPW expansion to the 1859 project.  The 48 figures are distributed across three, 16-figure battalions and make up the 27th IR.  Figures are Lancashire Games.  With the 27th IR on the roster, three regiments of Schwartzhoff's 7th DIV are in place.  One more infantry regiment to field and the line infantry contingents of my first Prussian division will be in place.  

The 27th IR is composed of the marching figures as opposed to the advancing pose of the prior two regiments.  To my eye, the marching pose is not as well-proportioned as the advancing pose and seems a little awkward.  From here forward, I will stick to the advancing pose which are excellent.

What else is in work?  Well, SYW British cavalry are on the workbench as are another 48 figures for another FPW Prussian IR.  Once I work my way through those figures, more Sumerians are likely to hit the painting desk next.  Having played two games last week, two battle reports are waiting their turn at the chroniclers.  Preliminary data wrangling and recoding for the Great Wargaming Survey results are in process too.  Seeing a significant drop in response in the 2024 survey, a likely and reasonable first topic will be to explore any implications on the reliability of data.  Oh, I would also enjoy weighing in with my thoughts on a recent topic from the Georgetown Wargaming Society's series of lectures.

These should keep me busy.

Getting in a Game!

After regularly hosting and umpiring the many remote games crossing my table, my fortunes changed and I enjoyed a chance at hosting (and playing in) a two-player remote game.  As suggested in my prior post on the background of this battle (see Mikata Ga Hara), Mark (Mud Blood and Steel) took up my offer for a game.  Hoorah!

With background to the battle already presented, Mark chose to take up command of the smaller, Tokugawa Army.  Mark is a wily opponent and relishes the challenge of taking the weaker army in an attempt to upend history.  Holding an initial advantage of springing from an ambush, I knew my work would not see an easy path to victory.

Let's see how the game played out.

As the battle opens, Ieyasu Tokugawa enjoys at least two turns of uninterrupted maneuvers to put his ambush into place.  That is, as long as no unit under his command jumps the gun and the trap is sprung early.

While Ieyasu's Center stands firm, the left is stirring into action.  The Left Wing commander, Honda, moves his troops forward.  Tokugawa, himself, leads his Samurai cavalry from its central position in the battleline off to the left in support of Honda.  With Honda in place, the battle begins! 

From high ground on Takeda's Right,
faint bodies of troops are seen to the front. 

Tokugawa's Army moves into position.

Proceeded by a volley of arrows,
Honda attacks but the defenders stand firm.

Honda advances as arrows continue to rain down.
Yamagata's troops on Takeda's Right are disordered. 
Takeda's bowmen in the center are, likewise, disordered.

Takeda's archers are not only disordered but suffer
from the barrage of arrows delivered by enemy longbow.
Their resolve weakens.

Having seen his spearmen repulsed in the first attack,
Honda redoubles his efforts sending forward his Samurai.

Fighting uphill, the Samurai drive off the defenders.
In the center, Tokugawa's spear crash into the wavering archers.

The defenders break and the spear push on in pursuit.
The Ashigaru spear face Takeda's mounted Samurai.
Pursuit is stopped and the Ashigaru recoil.

Seeing the spearmen repulsed,
Tokugawa sends his foot Samurai forward.  Same result.
  Attackers repulsed but the defending cavalry fail to pursue.  

With Yamagata's Right in full retreat,
Tokugawa presses his advantage.

Honda sends his Samurai lunging deep into the enemy rear.

Leading his cavalry forward,
Tokugawa charges into the isolated Ashigaru of Yamagatu.
The spearmen hold! Ieyasu is repulsed.

With all of the action on Takeda's Right and Center,
 what is happening over on the Left?

Both armies are being ground down from the ferocious combat but Takeda's Left has remained cautious in its response.  With his right turned, Takeda must act now!  Having witnessed and almost survived the surprise attack upon his right, Takeda finally coordinates a response on his Left.  Takeda's Left, under Obata, snaps into action!  First, Obata must withstand a few attacks from the enemy to his front.  

Ashigaru spear repulse an enemy attack...

but a second attack collapses Obata's Teppo.
Teppo stream to the rear.

Launching coordinated attacks against Ieyasu's Right (Sakai),
Sakai's Wing folds in a series of attacks, retreats, pursuits.
Remnants of Sakai are driven back with great loss.

Seeing the destruction of Sakai's command is too much for Ieyasu.  His army breaks and Tokugawa leads what is left of his army from the field.  Victory to the Takeda Army! 

Ending positions and state of the Army Breakpoints. 

The result was a Takeda victory but the contest was close and outcome always uncertain.  As the photo above illustrates, Takeda's breakpoint was down to two (blue die) when Tokugawa's Army broke.  Very close contest with drama and excitement from the opening volley of arrows.

Mark developed a solid plan and wiped-out Takeda's Right in the early stages of battle.  As the battle ground on, I figured my command tent would be under attack very soon.  Still, Takeda's Center held and the Left finally launched its spoiling attack to turn the balance.  With the destruction of Sakai, the enemy's will to fight was broken.  What a tense and action-packed game!

Thank you Mark for an excellent game!  Very fun to actually get into a fight and escape with a very narrow victory.  Narrow victory, indeed.  Based upon the points differential (two points) when Tokugawa broke, I call this a tactical draw since both armies are heavily battered and bruised.  

Great fun!