A First Look at First Manassas

One of the rationales I offer for walking battlefields is to get a sense of the lay of the land.  While I can read a topo map and wield a compass, being on the ground provides a unique perspective.  With my eye surveying the battlefield, battle accounts take on more depth.  Walking the ground can provide insight into why a battle was fought in the way that it was.

My recent walk around the First Manassas battlefield was no exception.  With a notion of refighting this battle in miniature, I tramped the ground to gain a better understanding of the battle and the relationship between time and distance.

Following are a few photos from my recent walk in May. 

Looking north toward Henry House from Visitor Center.

Jackson, out standing in his field.

Confederate position on Henry House Hill
with Robinson House in background.

Looking west toward Henry House
from Confederate lines.

The hills are not flat!

Stone House and Matthews Hill beyond
as seen from Robinson House.

How do I use this information when I return home?  I build a stylized battlefield in miniature for an upcoming series of games to refight this battle.

Young's Branch Battlefield
on a grid

Yes, this will be another grid-based game.  Battle Briefings have been dispatched. 

Grenadiers de France

I can only speak for myself but after having been away for more than a week, finding time to sit down for meaningful painting sessions has been challenging. Yard work beckons and so does the bike. Even without the commitment to a game or two fails to free up much time. Games are on the horizon, however.

Anyway, off the painting table today is a regiment of Grenadiers de France for the SYW project. The 23 figures field Blue Moon foot led by a Eureka mounted colonel. Flags are by David at Not By Appointment. David has been providing me with a steady stream of flags for the lads. Some Piedmontese are in the works.

I have not hosted a game in a few weeks but that will change soon.  On deck, plans are formulating to host an ACW battle.  Fresh off my battlefield tours, I am inspired to field a few of the battles visited on the gaming table.  First up will be the 1861 Battle of First Manassas.  As scenario work progresses, I have at least three games lining up.  One looks to muster five players for a remote game.  Several others may see me fighting it out against an opponent in a one-on-one setting.  More details as plans and scenario solidify.  Much work remains to accomplish.

On the cycling front, mileage picks up again after a week away from the bike.  Despite a seemingly unending string of thunderstorms, I have been out daily.  On Saturday's ride, I was unfortunately caught out in a localized cloud burst and spent much of the two-hour ride in the rain.  The bike and I returned home a mud-caked mess.

I end on a selection of photos from my recent cycling outings.

The Pavilion

Upper Falls with river near flood stage

Spokane's de facto furry mascot: The marmot.
This rodent is about 8 lbs. 

On the Reliability of Data

The Great Wargaming Survey (GWS) accepts voluntary responses from any participant completing the survey.  No random sampling mechanism is in place.  Sampling is by convenience.  Since a respondent must have knowledge of the survey, access to the questionnaire to participate, and an interest in wargaming, the final dataset is naturally constrained to this population.  For each annual survey, all respondents submitting a survey (excluding those having data quality issues) are included in a cross-sectional study.  Cross-sectional studies collect data from many subjects at a single point in time.   

The relaxation of random sampling methods may introduce bias.  Having a sample not drawn randomly, a sample may not fully represent the population as a whole.  Inferences may be misleading.  The possibility of sampling bias has been a regular concern raised by more than one reader over the years of publishing aggregated survey results.   

Is the concern for sampling bias justified?  Does a sample size hovering around 10,000 annually mitigate bias?  Can survey analysis provide reasonable and useful results in the face of potential sampling bias?

What if the same target population is sampled at regular intervals?  Does repeated sampling improve confidence in the underlying method?  At each interval (annually for the GWS), the survey collects a different sample of the target population.  This is a repeated cross-sectional study.  Repeated cross-sectional studies can be used for analyzing population changes over time even though the samples, themselves, are not identical.

To gain confidence in the methods used and results presented, each survey ought to be drawing similar samples from the target population.

To assess this hypothesis, a few of the demographic attributes are selected for the years 2016-2022.

Prior Survey Response by Year

In a repeated survey, the earliest years ought to see fewer repeat respondents than in later years as the probability of having completed the survey increases.  What is interesting is that the percentage of repeat respondents stabilizes at about 50% since 2020.  About half of each sample is generated by respondents not participating in the survey before.  Surprising result?

Years Spent Wargaming by Year

When capturing the number of years spent wargaming, besides 2016 and 2017, the percentage of respondents in each duration bin are relatively stable.  Wargamers gaming 31 years or more remains locked into the upper 30% range. 

Respondent Location by Year

When examining respondent location over time, again, the time series remains stable.

Age Group by Year

Examining the time series by age shows an interesting but not unexpected result.  Given that prior analyses suggest that the population of wargamers is getting older in aggregate, samples drawn from a similar population ought to produce this tendency.  The chart below exhibits the tendency of older cohorts increasing over time.

Primary Interest By Year

Finally, consider a respondent's primary interest in wargaming.

Over time, we see a shift from Fantasy/Sci-Fi to both Mixed, and Historicals.  Given the tendency for non-historical wargamers to gravitate away from preferring purely non-historical wargaming as they age, the underlying samples seem drawn from similar populations.

While GWS samples may not be drawn randomly, the hypothesis that these data are drawn from similar populations across time should not be rejected outright.

Can results from several years of the GWS be relied upon for useful inferences on the population of wargamers?  The answer is up to the individual.  I know my position.

Freitag of Arabia

Peter (Grid Based Wargaming) returned to his WWI in Palestine campaign for another episode.  His battle account is available from the link above.  This time, Palestine is consumed in the Arab Revolt.  J.R. Freitag leads Arab forces in an attempt to thwart Turkish troop transports from reaching the front. 

Having mustered an armored car, two cavalry units, and three infantry units, Freitag must stop the train.  On the train are four units of Turkish infantry and an artillery piece.  The train is armed with a single machine gun.

Can Freitag and his Arab allies overpower the train and its cargo before 15 turns elapse?

Let's see...

As the train approaches, the Arabs barricade the track.
Poised in hiding on both sides of the track, the Arabs wait.
Arab AC emerges from the village to harass the enemy.

Arabs burst from their cover and move toward the train.
Arab machine gun provides cover from the hilltop.

Two Turkish infantry detrain as the train comes under fire.

The Arabs close in as their fire concentrates
onto the Turk in the open.

One Turk infantry destroyed!

Nearly surrounded,
 a second Turkish infantry unit is scattered.
The train lurches forward but is stopped at the barricade. 

Two more Turk infantry detrain along with an artillery piece.
The Arabs remain beyond the field of fire of the train's MG.

A coordinated attack by three Arab arms
destroys a third Turk infantry.
Jubilation is short-lived.
Taking fire from artillery,
the armored car is consumed in smoke as it stops, dead.

Freitag and his Arabs move in for the kill.

Turkish artillery scatters Arab infantry to its front.  

Overpowered, the Turk artillery is destroyed.

With the Game Clock tolling the 15th turn,
 the train's MG is taken out.
Freitag is Victorious! 

A fun and tense game that came down to a decision on the final turn. 

Early on, it appeared the Arabs would make easy work of the Turks.  Turks fell in rapid succession until casualties began to creep up for the Arabs.  Suddenly, Freitag's Arabs failed activation after activation only mustering enough strength to successfully attack the train's MG on the final turn.

I wonder if Freitag will be Knighted?   

Piedmont Guards and Grenadiers

On the path toward fielding a Piedmontese army for the War of Austrian Succession, more Piedmontese march out from the painting desk.  This time rather than run-of-the-mill infantry, guards and grenadiers make an appearance.

In my earlier refight of Bassignana, both a regiment of Guard and a battalion of grenadiers were present on the day of battle.  Unfortunately, ersatz guard and grenadiers were needed to fill these slots.  Next time, the proper units will be present and available for duty.

Figures are Old Glory infantry led by a Eureka mounted colonel for the Guard.  Flag is from Not By Appointment.

Piedmont Grenadiers

Piedmont Guard

Piedmont Guard

Made it back from a weeklong exploration of several ACW battlefields on Tuesday.  It may take a bit of rest to recover.  A number of miles put into the legs tramping over battlefields.  No time to rest, though, Peter is hosting a continuation of his long running WWI Campaign in Palestine later today.  We see the first appearance of the Arab Rebellion.  I may be playing the role of Lawrence.

In a nod to serendipity, I have had my eye on a recently released book on the Battle of Assietta 1747 set during the WAS.

Fortune smiled upon me in a browse through a small bookshop in Gettysburg.  There I found the book!  A few other books made the trip back to Washington State with me as well.  My travel-buddy ended up shipping a box of books back to his home.

I leave you with a sunset taken from the observation tower at Pitzer's Woods looking west at Gettysburg.

Piedmont Saluzzo Regiment

Another Piedmontese regiment musters out close on the heels of the previous regiment.  This time, Saluzzo Infantry Regiment presents itself for service.  Like Monferrato before, Saluzzo is yet to be presented with its flag.  One day.

Saluzzo's 23 figures are composed of Old Glory foot and a Eureka mounted colonel.  By my count, this is the fourth Piedmontese infantry regiment to join the ranks of the slowly growing Piedmontese contingent.  In work are grenadiers and guard.  These two will be followed up with a few batteries.  Progress!

On the cycling front, mileage week before last was good but weather dampened (literally) mileage.  Before a string of thunderstorms brought a fair amount of rain, I snapped the following photos of the Bowl and Pitcher rock formation straddling the river below.

On the gaming front, the table has been cleared of ECW armies.  Next up may see a return to ACW in 10mm.  First, I need a scenario.  Research begins.

On Tour

This week I am on tour. Where’s Jon?

Report upon my return.

Piedmont Monferrato Regiment

With weather improving and games-a-plenty, work at the painting desk slows.  Still, I manage to keep the brush engaged but not fully.

Off the painting desk today is the first of a number of SYW/WAS units being called to the colors.  Well, the colors have yet to arrive but you get the picture.  Today's offering contains 23 figures of the Piedmontese Monferrato Infantry Regiment.  Foot figures are Old Glory led by a Eureka Mounted colonel.

With warming temperatures, Spring Run-off kicks into a higher gear this week.  A torrent of water is passing through the Spokane Gorge and over the falls.  Stopping on the Blue Steel Bridge before I begin the ascent home is a nice break in the daily cycling routine.