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Thursday, November 30, 2023

How Do The Troops Come Marching In?

Another one of the new questions added into the Wargames, Soldiers, and Strategy's 2023 Great Wargaming Survey asked about the quantities in which new figures are purchased.

Specifically, the survey question asked, "When you buy new figures do you"
  • Buy all you need for a project you have in mind.
  • Buy large quantities 'just in case'.
  • Buy your miniatures in small quantities.
It turns out that the question was open-ended so respondents could add any answer they wished.  While most stuck to the prescribed choices, others went off on their own (not so beneficial for analysis!).  To reflect these non-standard responses, the stragglers were reclassified into two additional categories.  They are:
  • Depends
  • Other
The diagram below illustrates that "Buying all you need for a project" (Project Buy) and "Buying in small quantities" (Small Buy) capture the bulk of the responses. Together, these two responses make up about 86% of total entries.  By percentage, Project Buy narrowly beats out Small Buy in the survey results.  "Buying in large quantities just in case" (Excess Buy) makes up about 10% of totals.
Counts of Responses
This, in itself, is an interesting result in that respondents tend to buy it all or buy in small quantities.

Can any insights be gained by drilling down into the data?

For this exercise, five attributes will be examined.  Those are: Age Group, Primary Interest, Location, Collection Size, and Number of Unpainted Figures.

Let's see what the data suggest.

Age Group
When examining buying patterns by age group (ignoring 81+ since that has very low head count), the groups tending to Project Buy and those tending to Small Buy are roughly evenly split.  Age Group 51-60 tends to Project Buy more than any other group while the 20-and-Under group leans toward Small Buy.  Notice that having reached the 51-60 plateau, Excess Buy tends to decrease as a percentage with increases in age. 

Age Group
Primary Interest
When respondents are classified by Primary Interest (Historical, Fantasy/Sci-Fi, and Mixed), survey results suggest that Historical wargamers are more likely to buy by project than their Fantasy/Sci-Fi counterparts.  Conversely, primarily non-historical wargamers are more likely to purchase figures in smaller quantities.  As expected, the Mixed grouping falls somewhere between historical and non-historical gamers.  Roughly 10% of all respondents buy in quantities surplus to demands (Excess Buy). 

Primary Interest
Location
Again, the split between the Project Buy and Small Buy is roughly even across locations with more tending to buy for a project than purchasing in small quantities.  The curiosity in the chart below is that UK and Irish wargamers tend to buy in smaller quantities more often than the other regions.  Also, this same group is less likely to buy figures in quantities surplus to needs.

Why this difference?  My hunch is that frequent and readily accessible wargames' shows in the UK allow gamers to purchase in smaller quantities, frequently.  With easy access to traders and no postage costs, perhaps there is less need to buy in bulk in an attempt to reach any price break points on shipping?

Location
Collection Size
Breaking the results down by Collection Size produces an interesting and consistent result.  Consistent, that is, except for the spike in the Project Buy category for those with collections in 10,000-15,000 group.

What are these tendencies?  As the graphic below illustrates, Project Buy and Excess Buy increase as collection size increases and Small Buy decreases as collection size increases.  Big appetites consume big resources.  

Collection Size
Unpainted Figures
Finally, we turn to the number of unpainted figures and buying patterns.  Again, another interesting pattern emerges.  In the case of unpainted figures, Project Buy percentage remains roughly the same regardless of the size of the unpainted figure pile.  The difference is that Excess Buy increases monotonically as the number of unpainted figures increases while the Small Buy decreases monotonically as the figure pile grows.  These results suggest that painted figure output cannot keep up with the unpainted figure input.   

Unpainted Figures
Wrapping it up
What has been gleaned from this exercise of looking into figure buying tendencies?
Results suggest:
  • Wargamers tend to decrease Excess Buying having reached the 51-60 age group.
  • UK and Irish gamers tend to purchase in smaller quantities than other regions.
  • As collection size increases, so does Excess Buying. Conversely, Small Buys tend to decrease as collection size increases.
  • As the unpainted figure pile increases, so does the Excess Buy percentage. Similar to collection size, as the number of unpainted figures increases, Small Buys tend to decrease.  
Based upon these results, is it any surprise that some gamers have large piles of unpainted figures?  No surprise to me.

How do your troops come marching in?

56 comments:

  1. When starting a project I tend to have an initial "big" spend then add units when I have painted some of it. Buying it all in one hit would just overwhelm me.

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    1. A reasonable approach. How large is the typical “big spend” for you?

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    2. It depends on the armies involved, size of units, uniform complexity. It's usually between £100 -£200 maybe a bit more if vehicle or cavalry heavy.

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    3. What would equate to in numbers of figures?

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    4. Good question, I can't really say as I have never thought about it. If I was to hazard a guess, the Triple Alliance starter order was around 200/250 figures.

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  2. Small buys every time and bugger the additional postage costs. Sooner that than a massive pile of unpainted figures which would kill my enthusiasm for getting on with the project.

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    1. Another reasonable approach, JBM. Is it possible to simply place the pile of figures out of line of sight?

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  3. Although I have occasionally bought a large (by my standards) batch of figures, I am definitely more in the small numbers and often camp!
    I am sure you are correct in the reasoning as to why this trait is more common in the British Isles Jon - 90% of the leading manufacturers are based there and it's a simple matter to order 20 or 30 figures and pay £2 postage - unlike you and I, who buy 20 figures for $50 and end up paying another $40 postage!
    As to points 3 and 4 in your summary - aren't these a bit of a chicken and egg situation? Do people buy excess figures BECAUSE they already have large collections OR do they have large collections because in the past, they have bought excess figures - and likewise for point 4 - isn't the large unpainted pile caused by the excess figure purchasing, rather than the existence of the pile causing excess figures to be purchased?
    Interesting stuff as usual and as to age groups and primary interest, these results seem pretty predictable - sci fi/fantasy played by younger people with less money/time to collect and paint large collections PLUS the figures for this genre are generally more expensive AND the games are generally skirmish type with fewer figures required. The fact that historical gamers feel the need for much larger collections isn't a surprise, and once past mid 60's, many seem to start to tail off as far as new figures/projects etc are concerned, and so presumably buy fewer figures?

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    1. Thanks, Keith! Yes, for we overseas buyers, shipping costs really add up quickly. While to shipping to the US carries almost extortionist costs, at least many traders in the UK charge based upon total dollar amount. That way, we can still order small quantities without needing to buy in bulk to catch any price break points.

      As to your "chicken and egg" question, I wonder if some are simply predisposed to overbuy regardless of situation of painting speed? See Joe's comment below on FOMO.

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  4. Here comes anecdotal man again. Buying the project may also come from experiencing a source of figures disappearing. There was a hiatus in 25 mm products from Minifigs back in the late 70's or early 1980's. There was no way to add to my collection of Swedish Napoleonics for several years. When the Perry Napolonic Swedish figures came out I bought as much at a time as budget allowed.
    I had also managed to buy some other small forces from some short lived companies. Needless to say they closed before I had finished my project.
    Now a project gets a detailed list for procurement with the theme being getting all the figures in as quickly as possible.
    Lead pile and project buying go hand in hand. I personally don't paint faster because the truck unloaded.

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    1. Joe, I have experienced similar episodes where products went out of production before I purchased all that I needed. I know, "need" is a subjective term.

      You know, I attempt to pick up the painting pace when I know a truck is about to arrive!

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  5. I agree with Joe, in that I tend to buy enough to complete a project within a matter of months as I am always concerned that a figure manufacturer may go out of business. The project will then languish on the lead pile and cause a sudden bump in its size. My overall purchases are starting to tail off though as I now have more projects than I can realistically complete.

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    1. Lawrence, you are a very speedy painter so this approach works for you. Mere mortals may not be able to chur the Lead Pile as quickly so stuff stacks up. I agree that having figures go out of production is a risk. It has happened to me more than once! Good that I tend to stockpile figures.

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  6. I tend to project buy in line with my contemporaries (though I never excess bought, bar a couple of odds and ends like petardiers). Having said that, batches are relatively constrained in numbers as I build up to the big WAS/SYW battles like Torgau via small ones like Mollwitz.
    Chris/Nundanket

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    1. Thanks, Chris. you have a good approach to collection growth in that you start off with small goals and expand those goals over time. You are a reasonable collector.

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  7. Being Devils Advocate, the analysis is not influenced by the question of what is a whole project. So plenty of people have bought for Sharpe Practice and Rebels & Patriots, which as a ‘whole project’ is really similar to buying what in another system would be a starter army.

    I have 5 figure projects on the go, each was initially bought out to roughly 3/4 of what the project needed.

    For boardgames, which I know are not included in the survey, I am a completist, so once involved in a series, I will want to buy up the entire series in one go because games are subject to limited print runs and probably have an ‘in print’ life of only 18 - 24 months.

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    1. Norm, it would not be an analysis post without you wading in as Devil's Advocate. I expect no less!

      While some gamers choose to field paint and field large armies, others paint and field smaller armies (or even only a few figures). These choice differences are based on a large number of factors. In this case, I look at the question as one of a higher level. That is, regardless of the size of armies and the number of figures, are you a Completist, Incrementalist, or Megalomaniac.

      On boardgames, when you buy inro a system or series, do you pick up a series when the series launches or at some point down the road as the series has expanded? If the latter, how do you go back and pick-up games that may be out of print already? Secondary market?

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    2. When a new series is launched, I will typically it get to explore it …. Just in case, grab a copy while deciding if there is a future in the game. I have just done that with Decision Games’ Eastern Battles, if I like it enough, I will continue collecting.

      If I discover a series ‘mid release’ and need back modules, I will typically go to Second Chance Games, so that I get a chance to buy the game new. If I can’t get the majority of the series, it will likely stop my interest dead! I’m not a big fan of used games. My own are kept pristine, buying used can be a disappointing experience when a game has not been looked after.

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    3. Thanks, Norm. Like you, I prefer my wargames to remain in tip-top condition. I will buy lightly used games. Many of the punched games bought very little wear.

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  8. I've never had excess money for BIG buys while starting tooooo many new....undertakings (project suggests something carefully planned). Since many purchases were aimed for group games with friends with a tendency to be posted away (military) or moved away to a better job, the cupboards tend to contain heaps larger than small purchases suggest.
    I finally solved all that by trading in buying minis for buying molds.... infinite armies with infinite patience, waiting to be launched from potential to actual figures when the call to action comes

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    1. Thanks, Ross! I think your solution of casting your own figures really is the best solution in avoiding a large Lead Pile. I wonder if 3D printing will offer the same economies?

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  9. I tend to buy a large amount at the start of project to have a playable force or take advantage of a deal of some kind and then add smaller amounts at a latter date as needed. Probably why I have such a large lead mountain. I also do get worried a business may quit even more so if it's a small operation.

    Christopher

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    1. Christopher, you and I are in the same (possibly sinking) boat!

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  10. If I am unfamiliar with a manufacturer's product, I tend to wards getting samples before launching into mass purchases. Otherwise, I fit right into your charts - large project-based purchases for historical topics, smaller purchases for fantasy/sci-fi.

    I have to admit that I was surprised at the trend shown for larger purchases while already possessing large collections, especially unpainted ones.

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    1. Thanks, Greg! On your last observation, perhaps a few of us are hoarders as well although I know some wargamers who are extremely fast painters.

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  11. Here's hoping you'll forgive or at least permit the uneducated questions that may or may not relate to your analysis and summary . . . Is there any data in the survey (or through your vast experience and connections via your zoom gaming network) regarding the purchase of already painted figures? Would this expenditure/investment fall into a similar breakdown by age and number, etc.? Also, is there anything in the survey or elsewhere about gamers (whatever age and interest) contracting with others to paint the figures purchased?

    Unrelated question: are you goin to or thinking about using any scraps from the kitchen remodel for new terrain pieces for your table or stockpile of terrain?

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    1. Dear Unknown, you ask some good questions.

      There is no question on the survey regarding the purchase of pre-painted figures. Indirectly, the survey does ask what are the best/least parts of wargaming. "Painting figures" is one of the choices. I suppose if "Painting figures" is one of the "least" selections then, perhaps, this is a candidate for buying pre-painted figures? There was a question a few years back asking if a respondent painted one or both armies. I never looked at those results. Otherwise, I know of no other such survey asking your question.

      Most of the gamers I know paint their own figures. Some commission painting, some take painting commissions, and some play without painting anything!

      I expect no terrain projects coming out from the kitchen remodel. I do expect some of my painting time spent on full scale painting projects, though. Sigh.

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  12. My usual pattern is buying a big lot when getting started on a project, and then buying smaller ones when I near-inevitably decide I need some additional figures for it.

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    1. Sounds like a reasonable (and often used) practice, Andreas.
      Thanks for the visit and comment!

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  13. Interesting questions (and thanks for your analysis, as always, Jonathan!). Given the very nature of the much more constrained Warhammer/ Games Workshop model, with very (very) specific figures and unit lists (and some incredibly expensive special models), vs the "figure agnostic" open ended nature of historicals, I would suggest that the two (fantasy/sci fi, broadly defined, vs historical) would either have to find a way to control for the very different contexts or have to be examined separately. I'm guessing that in the Warhammer / Games Workshop world, one would naturally tend to buy in increments after the starter set.

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    1. Thanks, Ed! For non-historicals, I suspect your assessment is correct. Looking at the Primary Interest graphic, while this groups lean toward smaller purchases, many still buy for a project.

      If you buy a starter set followed by incremental purchase, which survey response do you give?

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  14. Jonathan, it depends....☺
    Way back when (time rich, resource poor) I was limited to buying a unit or two at a time and painting them as I went. Ranges were limited but stayed around.
    Now I'm older, richer but time poor, I tend to buy most of what I need for a project (ranges now disappear with alarming regularity). Sadly, more projects than time.
    If I'm buying extinct miniatures, I may buy more than I need (buy when you see it, not when you need it) just because you cannot rely on a regular supply....
    Neil

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    1. Many decisions fallback to "it depends" don't they?
      If "It Depends" is listed as a choice, I wonder if 80% of the responses would be that?

      As always, your feedback much appreciated!

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  15. Interesting stuff, thanks. I'd be in the 'small amounts' camp, partly due to not really ever being organised and disciplined enough to sit down at the start and work out what the total requirement for the 'project' would actually be! Hence things get built up peacemeal, and of course the 'project' may never be 'finished' - because no finishing line has been defined!

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    1. Thanks, David! I wonder how many projects are ever really completely finished? Like you, I tend to continue adding to projects long after they are "Completed."

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  16. Personally I am more of the Go Large or go home type, always have been including when I was playing fantasy. I guess because I have always had a good income and wargaming really is my only hobby.
    As for unpainted figures, well it is embarrassing to say I possibly purchase the same amount that I paint each year ….. so never getting ahead of the problem.

    Cheers
    Matt

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    1. Thanks, Matt! We run in similar circles in that I tend to over-indulge too. I like to think that my painting keeps pace with my purchases but some years I lose ground as I watch the Lead Pile spill out onto the floor.

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  17. Interesting data and analysis Jonathan and thank you for posting it.

    I wonder if individual's own definitions effect the responses. I used to think my GBP100 purchases from Pendraken would count as a large order. But then I saw a post on a new line that detailed the initial orders - several were for over GBP1,000! So my orders were not really large!

    Like many non-UK residents my purchases are impacted by postage so I tend to go for large* orders, sometimes for multiple projects to minimise the costs. However this has had the benefits of making me plan more and it is enjoyable to do the research, plan armies and purchases. Adds some anticipation to the hobby experience.

    * large by my standards 😊

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    1. Glad you enjoy this installment of data analysis, Ben!

      Since the question was looking buying for whole project or incremental purchases, I think the question can be answered consistently. Now, some gamer’s projects may be larger(or smaller) but we are still exploring the concept of whole shebang vs a little at a time.

      Postage affects my overseas (actually domestic too) purchases as I chase the goal of optimizing purchases, same as you. That, in itself, lends a hand in over-buying.

      Planning and research are, indeed, enjoyable facets of the hobby.

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  18. Interesting analysis as always Jon. I can’t think of a project bought in one go. Availability for us here in the uk is clearly a factor in that. I’m also somebody who loves a bargain as you know so pick up figures at shows and secondhand where ever possible, slowly expanding projects. I suspect the buy it all in one go is one of the causes for people having too much stuff. You often see on eBay or elsewhere people selling of huge almost complete collections of unpainted figures and armies, this always surprises me but is probably a reflection of the above.

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    1. Thank you, Matt! Not tired of this steady stream of stats, yet? That's good! Always more to come. Buying all in one go is likely a big factor in BIG figure piles. Still, I enjoy having lots of potential with which to work.

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  19. I sit in all camps really. I'd love to buy everything I needed for a new period all at once, but that would dent my wallet way too much. So its small dribs and drabs for me. Unless I win the lottery of course!

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    1. Thanks, Ray! As we see from the survey results, you are not alone. Well, until you win the lottery.

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  20. I'm in the over 60 group, and definitely buy more in quantity than earlier years. Non-UK gamers likely buy in bulk to save on shipping costs as you alluded to.

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  21. It depends, is a good phrase in this context and I'm going to use it too! My Covenanters I bought as a project, my Great Italian wars was largely bought as a project and then added to. I guess I'll start generally start with a substantial order and then add as I get stuff painted, which is how my Napoleonics have gone and Bolt action. When I collected 40k I was definitely a dribs and drabs collector, even so I still have a lead pile from those days! So it depends but I'm happy enough now as I don't generally allow myself additional figure purchases for a project unless I've painted a big chunk of the original order. I still have early Romans and both sides for the 100 years war in the initial stages and wouldn't allow any more purchases until I've painted more, whereas I'm happy to buy Napoleonics because I'm painting them! Interesting analysis as always!
    Best Iain

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    1. "It depends" works for me as well. Reading the comments, it appears many of us begin a project with a core, project-based set of figures and then add to them over time.

      Glad you found the analysis interesting!

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  22. Thankfully I fall into the small buy group. I don't like to see a lot of unpainted stuff as it puts pressure on to complete and reduces my enjoyment of painting. As a result I have 10k plus figures atleast all painted up and no lead pile

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    1. Having no Lead Pile makes you one of the few, Neil. Good job!

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  23. Nice analysis Jonathan. I fall into the "buy what you need" category, or more correctly buy "what I can paint over a given period". It would be interesting to quantify what a big purchase is both in volume of figures and in dollar value and then compare that to historical vs non-historical - given the cost differential of products between the two genres this could give a different meaning to a large or small purchase.

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    1. Thanks, Mark. Getting hobby spend is a tricky bit of data to capture. In the past, I am not too confident that gamers track spend that accurately especially will all of the needed currency translations.

      In the 2023 survey, the question changed from actual money spent to relative spend. That is, did you spend more, less, or about the same as last year.

      From what I see, while historical gamers may buy more but less expensive figures, non-historical gamers buy fewer but more expensive figures. Of course, it depends upon what type of gaming you do too.

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  24. Since moving to 10mm and larger battles than before, I'm very much buy everything I need in one go, or at least enough for a good core force. So this would be say 3 brigades of infantry, 4 brigades of cavalry plus some artillery and command figures for Honours of War. Then I might add a few more items once the core force was finished and had been games with, so I could seem what would be useful additions to allow for more variety in terms of options to be fielded. Broadly the same would be true for WWII.

    But if I look back at my early WWII skirmish games, then it was pretty prescriptive with the rules what forces you could field, so it was one purchase and that was it.

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    1. Thanks, Steve! A Big Bang project purchase followed by a trail of incremental purchases seems common. I often find that my initial “all in” buy is not quite “all in”.

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  25. I usually am in the big initial buy camp, and then add incrementally thereafter as my megalomania kicks in!

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