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Saturday, February 1, 2020

Size Matters But To Whom?

In a continuation of reporting on the 2019 survey results from WSS' 2019 The Great Wargaming Survey, Jasper highlights some of the survey results on figure size (see: 2019 GWS - size matters).  Jasper focuses on the trend from 2014 through 2019 of 25mm, 28mm, and 28mm Heroic figures losing ground to the smaller figures sizes.  He makes a further observation that these sizes are losing ground not only to the smaller figure sizes but to airplane/ship/spaceship gaming.  For the latter shift, Jasper proposes that this shift may be due to an increased interest in product specific games such as Cruel Seas and Star Wars.  Time will tell.  

In a follow-up to Jasper's commentary, I examine figure size from the perspective of a gamer's primary interest (see: GWS 2019 - Digging into the numbers: size matters to whom?).  Keep in mind that survey respondents may choose more than one figure size when completing the survey.  Respondents could choose every figure category if they wished.  I posit two conclusions from this analysis.  They are:
  • Airplane/ship/spaceship gaming represent crossover genres.  That is, they appeal to gamers with a mix of interests.  Both primarily historical and fantasy/sci-fi gamers can find something of interest here.
  • Historical and Fantasy/Sci-fi gamers diverge on preferred figure size.  Historical gamers tend toward figure sizes 25-28mm and smaller.  Fantasy/Sci-fi gamers tend to prefer figures sizes 25-28mm or larger.
I expand on figure size and primary interest relationships using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA).  Recall the goals of MCA are to either discriminate between one or more attributes or associate one or more attributes into similar groupings.

To recap the counts on figure size and primary interest, the table below quantifies this distribution.
MCA: Figure Size vs Primary Interest
Taking the data from the above table, correspondence analysis yields the following graphical representation. 
What can be distilled from this graphical representation of relationships between figure size and primary gaming interest? 

First, let's lay out boundaries in which little or no discrimination is possible.  In the graphic below, the attributes within the colored bands show little distinction within a given dimension.  For Dimension 1 (x-axis), there is no separation between primary interests of Mixed, Not Specified, and figure size of 25-28mm.  Claiming 25-28mm as preferred figure size is shared by many.  Respondents having primary interests of Mixed/Not Specified tend to be catch-alls with preferred figure sizes spanning all categories.  
What else can be inferred?  Well, next focus on two points that appear as outliers and far from each other.  Those two figure size attributes are 40mm or larger and Space-ship miniatures.  This distance in Dimension 2 suggests these two attributes are almost mutually exclusive.  A respondent choosing one most likely does not also choose the other. 
Similarly, there is clear separation between primarily Historical and primarily Fantasy/Sci-Fi gamers.  A gamer with a primary interest in historical gaming does not venture into the fantasy/sci-fi world, it seems.  See graphic below:
Finally, if we consider who plays what, the data suggest that there are clearly defined clusters of attributes based upon primary interest (see graphic below).  Fantasy/Sci-Fi gamers gravitate toward 28mm Heroics.  If 02-03mm or 20mm-1/76 are played, these will be chosen by Historical gamers.  While 10-12mm, 15-18mm, airplane, and ship gaming fall within the Historical sphere of play, their tie to historical gaming is not linked as tightly as 20mm-1/76.   
Do these results reinforce common knowledge or anecdotal notions on the hobby?  Are there any surprises?  For someone in my age group, the binding of 20mm-1/76th figure size to historical gaming makes perfect sense.  Even though I no longer have any 20mm collection, I grew up pouring over articles in Wargamer's Digest showing many HO scale WWII battles among its pages.  Remember the multi-issue fight for Tobruk?  One of my favorites.  Likewise, battles in 20mm or HO scale across all periods were a frequent sight within its pages.  Ah, those were the days. 

The more I study these survey results, the more I am convinced the results paint a reasonable portrait of the hobby.  What do you think?

42 comments:

  1. As always very interesting reading Jonathan and I may need to come back for a more detail view. There is clearly something in my head between the historical recreation of battles or parts of battles and the smaller scales. Whilst our little figures are plentiful we can never (normal people) hope to be able to have anything other than a small scale representation of a battle. I wonder if this is the lean towards larger scales for less historical based games, But of course this is a real generalisation and as somebody with 28mm, 15mm, 1/72, 10 mm and 6mm collections I would have to think about why I have those scales

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    1. Very good to see that you find these analyses of interest to you, Matt!

      I am firmly in your camp with respect to larger armies and smaller figure sizes. I enjoy recreating large historical battles and not only a portion of it. To realistically pull these off, one needs to focus on smaller figures in mass. For these big battles, I rely on 10mm or 15mm figures.

      Like you, I have collections that span the range of figures sizes from 6mm to 30mm and much in between. I no longer have any 20mm or 1/72 collections, though.

      Perhaps, the leaning of fantasy/sci-fi to the larger figure sizes is due to a more skirmish approach to these games?

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  2. The group I game with were discussing figure scale only today, with broad agreement that they were happy they had sold their 28mm Ancient collections and settled on 15mm. Same with my Napoleonic group. I am still a big fan of 28mm, but appear to be the only one who is. I wonder how much of these stats are driven by what is also a function of what is available in certain genres, as opposed to pure preference?

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    1. Lawrence, I still have many collections in 25mm. To me, the 25mm collections are geared to a specific type of game that is better suited to the larger figures. Smaller figures have their particular role too. I cannot see selling off my collections of the larger figures and replacing them with smaller figures. One problem I face is that some periods I have collections in multiple figure sizes. This may be madness but each collection has a particular function.

      Stats could be driven by what is available in a particular scale although historicals seem to be well represented across the spectrum of figure sizes.

      Good thoughts and I appreciate your personal experience from within your own group.

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  3. Interesting Johnathon,

    I am yet to have a good look at the survey, I play across all periods and scales so, and even a little fantasy. My historical are predominantly 28mm and 20mm.

    Cheers
    Matt

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    1. Matt, like you, I have collections across many periods and in many figure sizes. No fantasy, for me, though.

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  4. Jonathan,
    This is very fascinating analysis. As someone whose collection is purely 15mm and smaller (10mm and 1/285), this definitely rings home.

    Here is an interesting example: Sci Fi at a smaller scale. I have some of the excellent vanguard minis sci-fi 15mm orks and the khurasan "not space marines." You would not believe it but absolutely no one I talk to is interested in gaming with this figure scale, much preferring the epic scale of 28mm and bigger for those kinds of games. Even the Rebel Minis 15mm pirates! i have bags and bags of them to be based individually. Most of my group prefers the intended scale (28mm) for pirate gaming. I feel like my personal gaming situation lends credence to your analysis. Sci Fi and Fantasy are very comfortable in the realm of the epic figure scales. At least in my area.

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    1. Hi Steve! Glad to see another vote for this type of analysis.

      I do not often see fantasy/sci-fi gamed or even collected at the smaller scales. In fact, I only recall a small handful of bloggers that dabble in 15mm sci-fi. Even then, I do not see games in this genre much. Of course, I follow primarily historically based wargaming blogs so I may be missing a huge swath of the hobby based upon my preferences.

      Very good to have on the ground validation of both the analysis and survey results.

      Thank you for your input into this discussion!

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  5. Interesting. In some ways I think it is more helpful at looking at this as just two groups, 28mm and the group who have decided to game in a smaller scale, but which as a ‘mindset group’ are actually fragmented across 6mm, 10mm, 12mm and 15mm, with choice of which one to go for just being a personal preference, but with a clear preference to avoid 28mm, as beautiful as that scale is!

    I am not sure what to say about 20mm and 1/72, perhaps they fit in the 28mm end of the ‘mindset’ thing.

    Those choosing the smaller scales have several reasons why they may have done this. Anything from gaming space, storage, look, painting, and budget, with maybe more than one of those reasons being involved, but whatever the reason, with 28mm being such a dominant presence, I think those in 15mm and below, simply see themselves as being interested in the smaller scales .... i.e. against the bench mark that has become 28mm.

    The figures are also interesting as they are immediate and fresh within a few months, giving a snapshot of what the hobby thinks (or at least a snap shot of the group motivated enough to participate in the survey) and yet there seems serious lag in magazine and wargame show presentation, where 28mm is dominant to the cost of the smaller scale, that media needs to catch up and if it does, the magazine and show circuit may be rescued as they both become more relevant to a wider audience.

    the hobby has always been subject to trends and fashions. The availability of plastics has undoubtedly helped promote 28mm, but in the last 3 months, three of those plastic producers have signalled plans to enter the 15mm and less market. I think this alone will shape magazine and wargame show content.

    Perhaps more interesting will be next years survey as that may show a more definite focus towards the smaller scales as a bigger part of the hobby get increasingly exposed to a growing interest in this product.

    The survey is lifting the lid on a group that have largely lost their voice and visibility over the last 10 years. I think that is changing and that there is a growing momentum behind it.



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    1. Norm! I can always count on you to offer in depth insights and thoughts on these discussions. Most welcome contributions to the discussion!

      Interesting perspective on bifurcating figure sizes into two groups only. With 25-28mm being the most popular figure size across all primary interests, do you think you see a reaction to smaller scale gamers actively avoiding 25mm and above? This is a curious hypothesis. I am agnostic with respect to scale or figure size but definitely with an historical bias.

      Your observation regarding the media, wargaming shows, and figure size is another interesting observation. Perhaps if wargamers were exposed to more of the smaller scale gaming, the tide would turn and interest in the smaller scales would increase?

      Adding a question on the survey regarding figure construction material (plastic, metal, resin, etc.) might be worth considering. Are 28mm plastics taking over the market for this figure size? I certainly do not know since I am firmly a metal head, myself.

      Thank you, Norm.

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    2. If looking at blogs and forums to take a pulse, big figure battle AAR's are 'generally' run on big tables and this seems to sit hand in glove with associated comments that reinforce the notion that large figures are for skirmishing and small figures give space for manoeuvre and of course this is very much the perspective / voice of the gamer with limited game space.

      So perhaps a helpful question to ask that could be tabulated with the scale results would be 'what size table do you have access to when using your own collection'.

      The question of course would need to be directed at the gamer and not the pure collector. I am guessing that the answer would show a correlation with chosen scales.

      I think other things play into survey results. 28mm is much more visual and photogenic and more likely to be 'paraded' on blogs and certainly in the magazines. In that part of what we do, I wonder whether 28mm owners are more likely to photograph and share and have photogenic tables and terrain, compared to the the smaller scale players, who are treading a more functional rather than aesthetical path. I know that might raise heckles on those who put on a magnificent table of mass, but I am tallking generally about the polarisation of two scales, rather than the cross-over point, where the best of both scales are exploited.

      I think certainly by next year that a scale (i.e. 28mm will not be able to be so easily defined by material (i.e. plastic), because this year several manufacturers are launching plastic in the 10 - 15mm scale range and for the first time that I am aware of, stepping outside WWII plastics.

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    3. Table size would be an interesting question to add and survey. I see a number of blogs using 28mm figures for big battles (Carry on Up The Dale, Olicanilad’s Games for example). They look superb but as you mention, they leave not much room for maneuver.

      While both of the blog examples above are UK based, I wonder if physical location and table size is related? Do gamers in the UK on average game on smaller spaces than gamers in the USA or Canada? That may provide an interesting correlation too.

      I have completed several correlation studies on these data, some with interesting results.

      Thanks again for your continued contributions to these survey analyses.

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    4. The impression I have and of course, this is only generalisation, but the UK gamer will play at home or 'down the club'. Home in the UK typically means the dining or kitchen table. Our kids seem to live at home longer these days, so in a typical 3 bed house, it is hard to find a permanent hobby space until you are 110 years old! :-)

      New build housing seems even more determined to ensure that we and future generations live within a constrained space, so the space thing is becoming worse over time, definitely a trending theme.

      Of interest is that a lot of clubs seem to be playing to a 6' x 4' standard, when the space they have is not necessarily so restrictive, but I think these days, gamers are increasingly wanting to see set-up, full play and take down, all fit into a single session.

      I like some of the big spectacular tables at wargame shows, but they don't click as being something that resembles my world and thus don't inspire me to buy at the show what that table represents.

      I have always thought of U.S. players having access to spacious basements (is that true?) - something we don't have in the UK.

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    5. Well, I am a very small sample of USA wargaming trends but here is my situation. The four guys with which I game regularly all (myself included) have a dedicated wargaming space with at least one 9' x 5' table each. Four of us have a wargaming room in a basement. The other has dedicated space in a den.

      We have no communal gaming space such as a club. Game venue seem to rotate among the guys in the group as each takes turns hosting.

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  6. I'll wager that part of the trend has to do with rising wholesale metal costs to manufacturers and related retail costs to us once the figures have been cast, packaged, marketed, and shipped off. That and there are simply a lot more people now raised on sci-fi and/or fantasy through movies, TV, and popular literature. And that's not even mentioning theapparently large gaming community that has come about in the last 40+ years or so thanks to Fantasy RPG like the venerable D&D. ON a different note, and while I love my 30mm mid-18th century collection, I'm not sure why smaller scales like 1/300th, 10mm or 12mm have never cuaght on in a big way for fighting tabletop games that are based on actual history. Makes perfect sense to me. Lower cash outlay, easier painting, and the possibility of fielding many more figures and units on, say, a 6'x 8' table. To each his or her own I suppose. But were I ever to embark on a large Napoleonic or mid-19th century project at this point, I'd go for 1/300th, which seems to be a reasonable compromise between kriegspiel blocks on the one hand and more expensive, time consuming 18-28mm figures on the other.

    Best Regards,

    Stokes

    Best Regards,

    Stokes

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    1. Cost of materials could be a driver in seeing a pick up in demand for the smaller figures. Perhaps as the Baby Boomers age and consider downsizing their homes, attention may increasingly turn toward small scales as well?

      One conundrum I envision is that as we age and our eyesight deteriorates, we ought to be moving to larger figures that we can see rather than to smaller!

      Thanks for your insights, Stokes!

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  7. Probably due to me entering the hobby relatively late (when scale-creep had already started), I prefer the larger 28's. This particularly so as some of my first 28's were Victory Force minis - and their largish size goes well with the 1:50-1:48 scale vehicles started with also.

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    1. Dean, the time when you entered the hobby may certainly play a role in the figure size chosen. When I began, 15mm for both Napoleonics and ACW dominated. I have not drifted far from that original experience but have greatly expanded my diversification!

      You paint so beautifully, the larger figures suit your style perfectly. I can see why you stick with the larger figures.

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  8. I started wargaming at 25mm, and moved to 15mm for my ACW collection, purely because there was a lot available in this scale. I moved back to what had become 28mm for my Ancient/Dark Age armies, around 500 figs each, not skirmish. I have started SYW and again have gone for 28mm. I like the detail, can afford them and have a lot of space, they are also all metal. I am happy with 28mm.

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    1. Glad to see you are happy and content with your choice of 28mm for your gaming. 28mm is perfect for armies of around 500 figures. As you say, the detail is crisp and lends itself well to gaming with many of the popular rules on today's market.

      Like you, my figures are all metal too although I started off as kid fielding armies with Airfix plastics. Those days and the plastics are long gone.

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  9. What do I think...? I think I am not surprised to read you occupation is "data scientist" Jonathan! Interesting that the received wisdom indicates smaller scale figures are on the increase...my personal experience is the complete opposition, but that's based on eight or twelve middle aged or older gamers in Auckland, so I accept its not a good statistical sample! The other point I note is that apart from Lawrence and his obsession with all things tiny and ancient, I very rarely see anything other than 25/28mm on blogs I visit....apart from your own 18mm third empire era armies. I think another possible trend is the growth in skirmish scale games...our own contribution being recent examples of western gunfighter games....these also tend to use heroic scale figures as an"army" may consist of only ten or twenty figures...a bit like fantasy or RPG games.

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    1. Keith, I am no slave to fashionable trends so I don't see a marked shift to the smaller figure sizes either. Many of the blogs I follow tend toward 25mm too. I have large collections in 15-18mm including the French Second Empire you mentioned along with huge French Napoleonic (FRW and Empire), AWI, and SYW collections in 15-18mm.

      I concur that skirmish gaming seems to be on the rise although, for me, my 25mm Western Gunfighters and WWII figures rarely, if ever, get out of the box. I guess I am a BIG BATTLES historical gamer!

      Thanks for your thoughts on this topic!

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    2. Yes SECOND Empire.....I don't know where I thought the other one came from! Five republics though I think...pretty sure de Gaulle founded the fifth republic after WWII.

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  10. I always seem to be the outlier, in that I play historical Black Powder in 6mm, and fantasy / SF in 28mm. Plus a bit of 15mm ancients and WWII, so go figure?

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    1. You are no outlier, Markus! You are smack-dab in the middle of the "Mixed" wargamer group with historical interests in the smaller figures scales and fantasy/sci-fi in 28mm!

      You are the very Model of a Modern Major General!

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  11. Very interesting!

    For me it's mainly 28mm 65% historical - 35% fantasy

    best regards

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    1. Glad you find the analysis interesting! Do you game with figures you paint?

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  12. I am solidly 25/28mm, one size fits all, quite a large proportion is plastic and maybe that's because I came from scifi/fantasy,I'm lucky enough to have space to play/store my figures. One scale means I only have to worry about my terrain being right geographicaly and for period as opposed to having to have it in multiple scales, plus as I age,I can at least see the little buggers! Like you all my airfix/Atlantic are long gone although I have retained odd bits of terrain !
    Best Iain

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    1. Iain, I commend you on your focus to one scale. One feature of gaming often overlooked when collecting multiple scales and periods often is the necessity to collect terrain for all of the different scales and periods. You solved this problem nicely. I did not realize much of your collections were in plastic.

      Thanks for your feedback!

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  13. Interesting, as somebody whose taste is mainly 28mm with some dabbling in 6mm I wonder what drives the smaller 15mm stuff.
    With the great ranges of plastics available now 28mm is very accessible and relatively cheap.
    Maybe it's table space?
    Maybe it's the perceived difficulty in painting 28mm stuff.
    I'll stick with 28mm, as I only need one collection of terrain that can be used for most of my games.

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    1. Paul! 15mm has is place in many periods and levels of play. You would be hard-pressed to convince me to give up full battles in 15mm in either, SYW, FAW, AWI Napoleonics, and others.

      You are lucky that you have the discipline to focus on mainly 28mm projects. Me? I am all over the place!

      Needing only one set of terrain would be a luxury, for sure.

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  14. Redoubt miniatures, Jonathan I spoke to the guy at Grubby Tanks and he is definitely still producing and selling the full range of Redoubt English Civil War, he said order off the Redoubt webpage?

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  15. Jon's second great Passion: statistics?

    I really tried to understand it.
    Maybe I missed it, where I can find the 1/72 scale in the statistics? Are these 20mm or 25mm figures?

    Cheers,

    Amti (the 1/72 gamer)

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    1. Sorry if the analysis was confusing, Andre. Your favored 1/72 is in among the 20mm-1/76 grouping.

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  16. Nicely written post. As usual, when reading about the hobby in general it gets me thinking of my hobby in particular.
    Most of my stuff is 15/18mm for any genre that mainly uses fire power. My dark ages stuff is in 28mm. I seem to fit in with most historical gamers. I Ellie doing either the whole battle or large sections of it so 15mm usually is the way to go, plus it’s the size where weapon ranges seem to make the most sense. I never like it when rifled muskets only shoot 12”. 😀

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    1. Glad you enjoyed the analysis, Stew!

      I am with you on a preference toward 15/18mm for large battles as well as a nod to horse & musket gaming. I have no problem with a 12' rifled musket range depending upon the ground scale being modeled.

      With so many interesting periods, I tend to leave no stone unturned. I play it all!

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