Bring Out The Charts!

Happy New Year, 2015!

Out with the old and in with the new means one thing.  Yes, it is that time of year again.  Roll up your sleeves and put on your visor. A bit of computational work follows.

In my continuing struggle to wrestle my demon, The Lead Pile, into compliance, time to reflect on what was accomplished on the painting front in 2014.

As in the past, totals are presented on both an unadjusted and adjusted basis.  Since, raw totals weight all figure sizes equally, "proper" analysis should correct for this size or level of effort bias in computing painting counts.  After all, a 28mm Roman takes longer to paint than a 6mm Roman, right?  To make these adjustments, I use Analog Hobbies Painting Challenge points system to put all figure production onto a more comparable basis.

Reviewing time series on painting production by figure size (I'll call it "scale") on an unadjusted basis shows overall painting output dipping in 2014 to a little over 1,100 figures.  Completing 1,100 figures annual seems about right.  The last two years, I set 900 as a goal so surpassing that goal by a small margin is satisfactory.

However, the graphic below illustrates that output is the lowest in the last eight years.  Not by much but still lower.

While reduced output in 2014 is true, this picture can be a bit distorting since a larger proportion of figures painted in 2014 were in the larger figure sizes.  Once the figure counts are adjusted for size and relative effort to paint, 2014 totals look much more respectable. 

While larger sizes are seeing proportionately more time at the painting desk, what about examining these data by gaming era?  From the graphic below, my initial response to these results is that 2014 saw a lot of varied periods crossing the painting desk.  Quite a diversified portfolio!  Well, some might suggest a serious lack of focus.  Who is right?

Once adjusted for painting effort, about a half dozen projects received roughly equivalent attention with many more seeing some activity.  At the top of the heap in 2014 were the 28mm Napoleonics and 28mm Reconquista projects with the 28mm Punic Wars project not far behind.

Examining by year does not lend itself well to isolating the work of 2014.  To do that, pie charts help provide clarity.

On an unadjusted, raw figure count basis, 15/18mm figures consumed roughly 50% of total painting output.

After removing size bias, the 15/18mm classification drops to about 1/3 of total output while the 25/28mm classification jumps to about 2/3 of total production.  What does this result suggest?  If one wants greater productivity, concentrate on the larger scales!

When broken out by Era, what a kaleidoscope of color is produced!  Many different projects crossed the painting desk in 2014.  Great if you like painting diversity. Not so great if you planned on a focused attack. 

In a similar breakdown, the graphic above shows the 15mm Italian War of Independence (1859) project took top honors at 17% (194 figures) with second place going to the 15mm SYW project at 11.25% (128 figures).  Both of these project counts surprised me.  My recollection was that these projects saw little attention in 2014.  Just as in eye witness testimony, memory is unreliable.  Most of the 1859 work must have seen painting time during the early part of the year. 

Once these data are adjusted for effort bias, the 1859 project falls to under 11% of total while the SYW project drops to about 7%.  Reinforcing the notion that size DOES matter, the 28mm Napoleonics and Reconquista projects rise to the top of the heap. 

What are my painting plans and goals for 2015?  Still too early to put pen to paper but I would enjoy seeing more progress on both the 1859 and 1799 projects in 15/18mm.  Pulling the 28mm Punic Wars troops from their boxes this afternoon in anticipation for Saturday's game, I notice more Roman heavy infantry could easily be pressed into service.  For the Carthaginians, perhaps it is time to add an elephant or two?  Also in The Lead Pile are fixings for at least two new projects.  Will I get to those in 2015?

I would be shocked if the diversity seen in 2014 did not carry over into 2015.