tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post3858856999651456227..comments2024-03-29T00:41:14.635-07:00Comments on Palouse Wargaming Journal: On the Reliability of DataJonathan Freitaghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-77374137527447170582023-05-27T12:05:16.103-07:002023-05-27T12:05:16.103-07:00I got a couple of Raphael synthetic fiber ones to ...I got a couple of Raphael synthetic fiber ones to try as well as the usual 3-0 W&N Series 7. Awaiting delivery..Gonsalvohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16531623280789478092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-64709366905571377932023-05-27T06:54:42.765-07:002023-05-27T06:54:42.765-07:00Thanks for your comment, Peter! You and I know wi...Thanks for your comment, Peter! You and I know with certainty that our expenditures are much more than $500 per annum. New brushes? Excellent! I may have found brushes that hold up to W&N Series 7 for less cost. I am in still in the experimentation phase but these are tough brushes.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-12294621670752161172023-05-27T06:39:51.302-07:002023-05-27T06:39:51.302-07:00The need for some reasonably verifiable data about...The need for some reasonably verifiable data about the hobby and its participants has been talked about for as long as I've been in the hobby; this is probably the closest we are going to get, with self selection and other biases acknowledged. $ 500 spend per year seems way low to me, but I suppose if you're a p[layer rather than a game host, that could be true especially for RPG's. Just dropped almost $100 on new brushes!Gonsalvohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16531623280789478092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-48102193180567727822023-05-26T10:21:41.296-07:002023-05-26T10:21:41.296-07:00David, glad you weighed in on this topic! You are...David, glad you weighed in on this topic! You are one of the fellas I had in mind when I wrote this piece.<br /><br />Whether or not you pay attention to what others are doing within the hobby, I think these broad examinations are useful. Well, at least to some.<br /><br />Isn't one facet of attending shows to see what others are doing? Do you but hobby magazines for a similar reason?Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-86978949637006912072023-05-26T08:33:13.537-07:002023-05-26T08:33:13.537-07:00I'm sure that the annual survey has some use/i...I'm sure that the annual survey has some use/interest to a certain sort of chap but for me it's wholly pointless as I care not a jot what others do and would fully expect them to reciprocate. I'd rather enjoy my hobby and my chums, both physical and ethereal and let other do their thing. Perhaps I'm just an antisocial mard?😉Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06985725848702292911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-66561364187805586212023-05-26T04:32:48.930-07:002023-05-26T04:32:48.930-07:00I will take a look at spend distribution from the ...I will take a look at spend distribution from the survey. Personally, I am over the $1,000 mark easily. <br /><br />That is a lot of retail outlets! I wonder how much of those sales figures are locked away as store inventory on shelves and yet to transfer into gamers’ hands?Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-31035586599850049042023-05-26T00:46:48.586-07:002023-05-26T00:46:48.586-07:00I agree, $500 is probably to low for the average w...I agree, $500 is probably to low for the average wargamer but I am not sure if the average would exceed $1,000.<br />I had a look at the GW annual report and they said they sold to independent retailers " In 2021/22 we had 6,200 independent retailers (2021: 5,400) in 72 countries" There are a lot of wargame shops out there!Ben Catohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132734496369774300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-48975223866563231962023-05-25T07:23:56.796-07:002023-05-25T07:23:56.796-07:00Keith, this is one of the stats that has been disc...Keith, this is one of the stats that has been discussed for several years. The last three years an average of about 10,000 wargamers has completed the survey each year. The result does seem odd that nearly half of each year's respondents have not taken the survey in the past.<br /><br />I can come up with a number of reasonable explanations why this trend continues. None can be verified, though. Perhaps, like Chris states above, the wargaming population is large and we are only capturing a small subset each year? Perhaps, respondents forget they complete the survey? Perhaps, the survey is completed only once and the respondent is done. Perhaps a new batch of wargamers discover the survey each year? I could go on and on.<br /><br />Still, it is a puzzle to me to see this magnitude of new entries year after year.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-75700044539251212722023-05-25T07:12:31.398-07:002023-05-25T07:12:31.398-07:00Thank you, Ben!
Hobby spend is a question asked i...Thank you, Ben!<br /><br />Hobby spend is a question asked in this survey. From that, we could compute the average spend per respondent. Could that figure be used to back into the number of wargamers based upon GW sales? Good question! My hunch (based upon my own spending) is that $500/year is too low.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-38558164654802992262023-05-25T03:03:15.750-07:002023-05-25T03:03:15.750-07:00The strangest stat in all this to me is the fact t...The strangest stat in all this to me is the fact that about 50% of respondents claim they have not done the survey previously. Of course, I don't think you have mentioned actual numbers, so it could be that all the original respondents 5 year ago have done the survey every year since, but an additional 50% have done the survey for the first time each subsequent year - so you start with 2000 respondents - next year there are 4000 (50% are new) next year there are 8000 (4000 are new) and so on ?? Otherwise, it really does not make sense to me - why would significant numbers do the survey only once then drop out the following year, to be replaced by a new batch of respondents?? Any insights or thoughts on that, Jon?rrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07316317334203888350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-19526424088508546732023-05-25T02:47:54.913-07:002023-05-25T02:47:54.913-07:00Very interesting survey and analysis Jonathan.
I ...Very interesting survey and analysis Jonathan.<br /><br />I wonder if there is a way to estimate the number of wargamers. Games Workshop last year's revenue was (according to google) $464 million. <br />So, assuming an average gamer spend of $500 around a million customers? Does the survey ask how much people spend so that an average can be worked out?<br /><br />I must admit this is more than I thought there would be. But with 40K popping up more in media I guess there are more of us than I thought.Ben Catohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00132734496369774300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-15222382692751016502023-05-24T07:47:12.841-07:002023-05-24T07:47:12.841-07:00You know plenty, Ray!You know plenty, Ray!Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-48955248967836016612023-05-24T07:39:32.691-07:002023-05-24T07:39:32.691-07:0010,000 is a large number for a survey, so it shoul...10,000 is a large number for a survey, so it should give us a reasonably accurate set of figures, but hey, what the hell do I know??? Ray Rousellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07352596392520905197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-78712905443004147202023-05-24T06:57:52.395-07:002023-05-24T06:57:52.395-07:00Glad you enjoy these continuing dives into the sur...Glad you enjoy these continuing dives into the survey data, Greg!<br /><br />As for your question regarding actual use of these results, I can offer only anecdotal and secondhand confirmations. Nothing verified.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-11931862326636903422023-05-24T06:37:10.225-07:002023-05-24T06:37:10.225-07:00Mathematics is not my strong suit, but I do enjoy ...Mathematics is not my strong suit, but I do enjoy reading analyses of data - thank you for all you are doing for this.<br /><br />Is there any group out there that is using this information for any purpose other than entertainment?El Gregohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15255734917358886698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-20399701400834354672023-05-24T03:15:12.005-07:002023-05-24T03:15:12.005-07:00Forgetfulnesses is one concern. Another concern i...Forgetfulnesses is one concern. Another concern is the tendency to answer any question incorrectly no matter the question.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-87631686811244998872023-05-24T03:12:43.483-07:002023-05-24T03:12:43.483-07:00Much appreciated, Richard! Very encouraging to se...Much appreciated, Richard! Very encouraging to see that you continue to enjoy the summaries and inferences falling out from these efforts.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-40465249821077043422023-05-24T03:10:41.867-07:002023-05-24T03:10:41.867-07:00Steve, 10,000 respondents seems a valid sample to ...Steve, 10,000 respondents seems a valid sample to me too and, perhaps, the best we can expect. Having the same question asked year after year helps lends stability and benchmark to the results so that any changes maybe identified for what they are.<br /><br />I know some in the industry at least glance at these surveys results because I occasionally get follow-up questions and requests for data queries.Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-72666020949821824762023-05-24T00:54:18.667-07:002023-05-24T00:54:18.667-07:00Maybe given the age of many of us, it’s to be expe...Maybe given the age of many of us, it’s to be expected that some of us forget we’ve done it!<br />Chris.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-67475071294015881102023-05-23T23:40:01.563-07:002023-05-23T23:40:01.563-07:00Interesting post Jonathan. I enjoy the insights th...Interesting post Jonathan. I enjoy the insights that arise from the survey, but accept that ultimately it is not "scientific". However, the number of respondants lend it credence... certainly until we have a sense of what the wargaming population actually is. Maybe the UN can conduct a world census for us!!!???<br />Keep up the great analytical work on this. It's enjoyed and informative.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00576080338405462943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-57364605645434043352023-05-23T22:46:12.045-07:002023-05-23T22:46:12.045-07:00In the Human Factors world, data is often extrapol...In the Human Factors world, data is often extrapolated from just say 7 respondents, for a product or service to be developed. We used to say that surely this cannot cover the population as a whole, but apparently some Norwegian chaps proved that it could. We would then point out election pollsters and their forecasts based upon say 2K of those that answered a call etc, that got the Brexit outcome completely wrong!<br /><br />So I think given the above, some 10K of responses per annum is as good a coverage of our hobby as you are likely to be able to get. As others have said, this size means that things should even out to give a pretty good overview without any bias unduly affecting the results.<br /><br />One thing that has been touched upon many times is having the same questions each year, so the data can be reasonably compared to see if there are 'changes' showing in the results. It would be good to know what the 'industry' makes of this survey and if they use it at all in their planning for new products etc.Steve J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12143308117853983963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-20179721683968454982023-05-23T16:15:22.793-07:002023-05-23T16:15:22.793-07:00Chris, I can visualize what you describe and you e...Chris, I can visualize what you describe and you express yourself perfectly! Seems a logical extension that if half the sample is changing yet the results remain consistent that any sampling bias may be at a minimum.<br /><br />I agree that a 50% turn off brings in a substantial chunk of the total population each year. I am always surprised that the churn is this high. I often wonder if respondents forget that they completed the survey before or if this is in fact actual churn of new respondents.<br /><br />Very well described and perfectly clear! Thank you!Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-43123373928986525322023-05-23T15:46:39.997-07:002023-05-23T15:46:39.997-07:00Always something new to think about in those surve...Always something new to think about in those surveys! I'd have thought (without too much thought!) that having roughly 50% churn in the respondents each year that over time the surveys are capturing a reasonably representative sample of the hobby wargaming population. That's adding 5k of new respondents a year. 20,000 new responders in 4 years. How many miniature wargamers in the world do we think there are?<br />A circle representing the subset of wargamers that do respond, is moving around inside the circle representing the total wargaming population. Imagine the small circle starts at 12 o'clock inside the big circle, it's moving clockwise at roughly 1/2 its diameter each year, covering more and more ground. With reasonably consistent responses across a number of questions, over years, it would be a remarkable coincidence if the genuine responses of a changing subset of wargamers changed to align with previous years responses if the sample were not representative. Not sure I've expressed that clearly. :-)nundankethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12895608927860103442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-91530008359598717072023-05-23T13:36:01.390-07:002023-05-23T13:36:01.390-07:00Dai, you would be surprised at the number of Fanta...Dai, you would be surprised at the number of Fantasy/Sci-Fi gamers completing the survey each year. Every year, three of the top four periods are WH40k, Science Fiction, and Fantasy. The survey reaches even the fantasy/sci-fi groups.<br /><br />I appreciate your support and encouragement for my work on the survey!Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2267180105171392028.post-21887223906260426322023-05-23T13:30:31.294-07:002023-05-23T13:30:31.294-07:0010'000 -ish participants is pretty good, but I...10'000 -ish participants is pretty good, but I feel that this survey doesn't reach and therefore isn't filled out by a lot of younger gamers, primarily the "Warhammer/40K" camp of which there are a large number of gamers who subscribe solely to GW games systems and who don't even consider that there are other gaming options out there, or readily sneer at even the mention of such. <br /><br />Still, this survey is always interesting to both fill out and then to see your analysis thereafter Jon. The subtle changes to our hobby per the answers you illustrate with your keen mind and well written reports each year are often eye opening and force one to then compare to how one's own hobby has changed, or not, as we age.Daihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04978439841611727387noreply@blogger.com